基于国泰股票ETF行业轮动投资策略研究:2025年12月ETF行业轮动组合构建
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-04 11:58

Group 1 - The report highlights the rapid growth of the ETF market, with a total asset size of 6.72 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, an increase of 1.11 trillion yuan from the previous quarter [3][5] - As of November 28, 2025, there are 1,369 ETFs in the market, with a total size of 56,886.98 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 850.44 billion yuan in the past week [6] - A-share ETFs and cross-border ETFs are the largest categories, with sizes of 36,057.20 billion yuan and 9,385.70 billion yuan, respectively [6] Group 2 - Guotai Fund has a comprehensive ETF layout, with 73 non-monetary ETFs totaling 2,657.25 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [10] - The report discusses the construction of an industry rotation strategy based on anchoring ratios and momentum acceleration, which aims to capture industry momentum trends more effectively [14][15] - The historical performance of the ETF combination from July 1, 2021, to November 30, 2025, shows a total return of 4.04% and an annualized return of 0.90%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.12% [19][21] Group 3 - The current ETF combination includes Guotai Shanghai Composite ETF (510760), Guotai MSCI China A ESG Universal ETF (159621), Guotai FTSE China A Free Cash Flow Focus ETF (159399), Guotai CSI Home Appliances ETF (159996), and Guotai CSI 2000 ETF (561370) [22][23] - The weights of the ETFs in the current combination are 20.85%, 18.95%, 19.91%, 19.00%, and 21.29%, respectively [23]