证券研究报告、晨会聚焦：策略徐驰：2026年资本市场年度策略展望：全球格局重构与“十五五”战略新机遇-20251204

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is a systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape, influenced by the U.S.-China rivalry and the shift towards a "China model" focusing on supply chain security, technology, manufacturing, and military industries [3] - The "Fifteen Five" strategy emphasizes proactive policy measures and strategic opportunities, contrasting with the previous "Fourteen Five" period, indicating a stronger focus on national strength and institutional expectations in capital market pricing [3][4] - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in managing expectations and addressing local government debt risks, with a projected "slow bull" market characterized by steady index growth and accelerated market rotation [4] Group 2 - Key time points for the U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S.-China relations include potential policy shifts following the mid-2026 Federal Reserve chair transition and significant diplomatic engagements, which could influence market risk appetite [4] - The 2026 market is anticipated to experience structural rotation, driven by the global reconstruction and the initiation of the "Fifteen Five" plan, with a shift in capital market pricing logic from short-term profits to long-term national strength and institutional expectations [6][7] - The report identifies four main investment themes for 2026: technology innovation focusing on AI, upstream resource strategic positioning, new consumption opportunities, and safe asset allocations amid geopolitical uncertainties [8][9]