CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-04 12:41Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [2] Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local business platform in China, actively exploring new business increments while facing short-term profit pressure due to increased competition in its core local commerce segment [7][19] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to significantly broaden its Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural growth opportunities for future profitability [7][22] - Despite short-term losses, the long-term value of Meituan remains intact due to its established competitive advantages and operational efficiencies [7][30] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meituan, founded in March 2010, has evolved into a comprehensive platform offering various local services, including food delivery, hotel bookings, and travel services [10] - The revenue structure for 2024 is projected to consist of 74% from core local commerce and 26% from new businesses [13] Q3 2025 Performance Review - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but below market expectations [18] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased subsidies impacting delivery service revenue [19] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive pressures from rivals like JD and Alibaba, which have intensified the subsidy wars in the food delivery market [24] - Meituan's operational efficiency and established market presence provide a strong defense against these competitive threats [25] International Expansion - Meituan's overseas expansion, particularly through its Keeta brand, has shown promising results in markets like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with plans to further penetrate the Middle East and Latin America [22][29] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with expected adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [30][31] - The report emphasizes that while short-term losses are anticipated, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's solid market position and competitive advantages [30]