南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium ore is expected to increase next month, with more Hong Kong lithium concentrate arriving at ports and the release of salt lake production capacity. The resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. - The demand side is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate continuing to rise, and the pre - production schedule of terminal cells in December remaining flat month - on - month, showing a non - off - season market. - Considering the variables on the supply and demand sides, the price fluctuation range of lithium carbonate is expected to further widen, and short - term callback risks should be vigilant [3]. - There are also some influencing factors: the low domestic inventory of marketable lithium concentrate and the high - level production schedule of downstream industries in December are positive factors; while the potential oversupply of supply and slower inventory depletion, as well as the possibility of lower - than - expected demand, are negative factors [3][5][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Price Range Forecast: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 83,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 58.4% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 88.9% [2]. - Futures Contract Indicators: The closing price of the main contract is 93,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (0.04%) and a weekly decrease of 2,120 yuan (- 2.21%); the trading volume is 663,458 lots, with a daily increase of 20,135 lots (3.13%) and a weekly decrease of 78,005 lots (- 10.52%); the open interest is 560,629 lots, with a daily decrease of 2,207 lots (- 0.39%) and a weekly increase of 52,747 lots (10.39%). Similar data are also provided for the weighted index contract [11]. - Spread Data: For example, the spread between LC2601 and LC2603 is - 220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan (57.14%) and a weekly decrease of 120 yuan (- 35.29%) [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices: The prices of various lithium ores and lithium salts have changed. For example, the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,515 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan (- 1.76%); the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 350 yuan (- 0.37%) [20]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spot Price Differences: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,450 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide has decreased [24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis Data: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract shows certain fluctuations. The basis quotes of different brands of lithium carbonate also vary, such as the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy for the LC2601 contract is - 1,800 yuan [31]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 10,422 lots, with a daily increase of 770 lots. The warehouse receipts in different warehouses have different changes, such as a decrease of 760 lots in Jianfa Shanghai and an increase of 350 lots in Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai [33]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production Profit: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore shows different trends over time, and there are also data on the production profit of lithium hydroxide and the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [35].