天富期货白糖季报：棕油调整，白糖下挫

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural products sector showed mixed trends. The oil and fat sector declined, with palm oil adjusting from its high due to expected high inventories at the end of November in Malaysia. Sugar prices dropped significantly because of the seasonal supply pressure from the peak of sugar cane crushing in southern China. Apple prices adjusted at a high level, but the decline was limited by low inventories and might remain strong in the future. Other products like eggs, cotton, etc., also had their own market characteristics and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - The Dalian palm oil main contract 2601 adjusted downward from its high. The market expected the Malaysian palm oil inventory to increase to a 6 - year - and - a - half high in November due to a large month - on - month decline in exports. However, the decline might be limited as the production reduction season approached. Technically, the MACD showed a golden cross with a continuing red column, and the uptrend was not reversed. It was recommended to hold long positions [2]. 3.2 Apple - The apple main contract 2605 adjusted at a high level but the decline was limited. As of December 3, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 763.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24 million tons. With the approaching of holidays, apple consumption might enter a peak season, but it was also affected by competing citrus fruits. Technically, the price remained above the 10 - day moving average, and long positions were recommended to be held [3]. 3.3 Eggs - Egg contracts maintained the characteristic of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, but the weakness was not reversed due to high production capacity. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, demand started slowly, and inventory days increased. The main contract 2601 was still below the moving averages, and short positions were recommended to be held [6]. 3.4 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 dropped significantly due to the supply pressure of new sugar. The sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan was advancing, and new sugar was constantly coming onto the market, causing the spot price to fall. Technically, the price broke below the moving average system, and it was recommended to go short on rallies [7][9]. 3.5 Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 oscillated and closed up, showing a strong trend. As of November 27, the national cotton sales rate was 33.2%, a year - on - year increase of 18.9 percentage points, indicating strong demand. Xinjiang textile enterprises had a high operating rate and sufficient orders. The futures price was at a high level, and it was recommended to go long on dips with a support level of 13,680 [10]. 3.6 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, with the decline limited. Domestic imported soybeans were abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal had recovered to about 1.2 million tons. However, the high cost of imported soybeans and supply uncertainties in the first quarter supported the price. The main contract 2605 oscillated and declined, but the decline was limited, and short - term trading was recommended [12]. 3.7 Peanuts - The peanut main contract 2603 rebounded slightly after being supported at the 10 - day moving average. The peanuts in the Northeast were of high quality but with light trading volume. The demand side was cautious in purchasing, and the trading atmosphere was light. It was recommended to hold a small long position with a stop - loss set at the 10 - day moving average [15]. 3.8 Pigs - The pig main contract 2603 continued to trade sideways at a low level, showing a weak trend. The pig inventory was high, and the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in December increased month - on - month. The demand side was weak due to the late start of family curing and sufficient supply of substitute products. Short - term short - side trading was recommended [16][18]. 3.9 Red Dates - The red date main contract 2601 oscillated weakly at a low level. The inventory of red dates in Xinjiang was much higher than the same period last year, and the market supply pressure was large. With the listing of substitute products, the consumption of red dates was affected. Short - term trading was recommended [19].