玉米供需博弈加剧，盘面再创新高

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - Corn/Starch: Oscillating upward [1][7][9] - Oils & Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Hogs: Oscillating downward [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10][11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [12] - Cotton: Oscillating upward in the long - term, with short - term pressure [12] - Sugar: Oscillating downward in the medium - long term, with short - term support at 5300 yuan/ton [13] - Pulp: Oscillating [14] - Double - Glued Paper: First rising then falling in December [15] - Logs: Oscillating, with potential for a rebound from oversold levels [18] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, highlighting the complex supply - demand dynamics and market factors influencing each. For example, corn prices are driven by low northern port inventories, while hog prices are pressured by high supply in the short - to - medium term and may see relief in the long term. Each product's price trend is affected by unique factors such as weather, policy, trade, and consumption patterns [1][5][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils & Fats - Viewpoint: Pressure for a decline is increasing [5] - Logic: Weakness in US soybean futures due to lack of sales information and expected South American soybean harvest. High domestic soybean inventory and slow de - stocking of soybean oil. Mixed production and export data for palm oil, with expected seasonal decline in Indian imports. Tight domestic rapeseed supply currently but expected increase in the future [5] - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The discount of South American soybeans makes them cost - effective; attention should be paid to Chinese soybean purchases [6] - Logic: International soybean trade price differentials show a significant drop in South American soybean premiums. China is fulfilling its soybean purchase obligations from the US. Brazilian soybean export and production estimates are available. South American climate is crucial for CBOT soybean prices. Domestically, high soybean inventory, slow seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal, and various factors influencing different contract prices [6] - Outlook: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are both expected to oscillate [6] 3.3 Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: The supply - demand game intensifies, and the futures price hits a new high [1][7][8] - Logic: Low northern port inventories, policy support, and high - quality grain shortages are the main drivers. Regional differences in corn quality and price lead to increased demand for Northeast corn. Short - term concentrated demand from traders and logistical issues also affect prices. In the short term, the uptrend continues, while in the medium term, it depends on inventory release and downstream demand relief [1][8] - Outlook: Oscillating upward. Short - term wait - and - see, with the spot price expected to continue the upward - oscillating trend [1][9] 3.4 Hogs - Viewpoint: Sufficient supply, and hog prices are oscillating at a low level [9] - Logic: Short - to - medium - term high supply due to previous high sow capacity. Long - term supply pressure may ease as sow capacity declines. Insufficient demand from sporadic southern pickling activities. Increasing average slaughter weight [9] - Outlook: Oscillating downward. Near - term contracts are weak, while far - term contracts are supported by capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: Weak downstream buying, and the futures price shows a weak performance [10][11] - Logic: Overall lack of strong driving forces. Weak downstream buying and limited impact from the previous Thai floods. Seasonal increase in overseas supply, with raw material prices providing some support but facing downward pressure. Stable demand in the short term [11] - Outlook: Expected to continue oscillating, with no clear trend [11] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: Insufficient upward - driving factors in the futures market [12] - Logic: The hype about butadiene export news has subsided. Stable butadiene trading, and limited downward space for natural rubber prices. Butadiene prices have rebounded after a decline, with improved trading volume but some resistance at high prices [12] - Outlook: No upward - driving force, supported by natural rubber prices, and expected to oscillate in a range [12] 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: Short - term price increase is limited by the concentrated listing of new cotton, but long - term valuation repair is expected [12] - Logic: On the supply side, new cotton is being listed in large quantities, with higher production expected. On the demand side, it is entering the off - season but still shows resilience. Commercial inventory is accumulating but is lower than last year. Cost - line, warehouse - receipt speculation, and better - than - expected de - stocking support the price, but also increase hedging pressure [12] - Outlook: In the short term, pay attention to the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate upward, and buying on dips is recommended [12] 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: The downward pressure is increasing marginally [13] - Logic: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. The new northern hemisphere sugar - making season has started, and the increase in supply will gradually put downward pressure on prices. The domestic 01 contract is oscillating around 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, with 5300 yuan/ton providing support [13] - Outlook: Oscillating downward in the medium - long term, with short - term support at 5300 yuan/ton. The strategy is to short on rallies [13] 3.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: Pulp prices continue to rise, and the spot market has strengthened significantly [13][14] - Logic: The rally is driven by the release of negative sentiment after continuous price drops, overseas pulp mill shutdown news, and short - covering. There is some support for pulp prices in the short term, but the fundamental situation has not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation for softwood and hardwood pulp continues to diverge [14] - Outlook: Oscillating. The futures market will mainly oscillate in a wide range due to the issue of warehouse receipts [14] 3.10 Double - Glued Paper - Viewpoint: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating [15] - Logic: The supply side has limited changes, and dealers are cautious about stocking. Publishing orders have not been fully picked up, and downstream printing factories have weak orders. The price of some high - white double - glued paper has increased, while the price of some white double - glued paper has decreased. The overall price increase is limited by high inventory and the need for dealers to raise funds [15] - Outlook: Prices will be supported by publishing house pick - up in December, but there will be medium - term pressure. The market is expected to first rise and then fall [15] 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: New Zealand has entered a phase of reduced shipments, and medium - term supply pressure may ease [18] - Logic: The futures price of logs has been low, and the market supply - demand pattern is loose. New Zealand's shipments are expected to decrease from December to January, and the pressure on arrivals in the first quarter will ease. The short - term fundamentals in the domestic market are stable, and the 01 contract has no clear upward or downward driving force. The 03 contract may perform better due to the peak season and expected replenishment after the Spring Festival [18] - Outlook: The supply side will remain loose, but due to the low valuation, there is limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for a rebound from oversold levels [18]