宏观预期乐观+供应扰动担忧，有色大幅走高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, with positive macro - expectations and concerns about supply disruptions, base metals prices rose significantly this week. Consumption has been somewhat suppressed, which may limit the upside potential of prices. One can cautiously consider low - buying and long - holding opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin remain. The supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of these metals are optimistic. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - View: The increase in LME cancelled warrants indicates that copper prices will fluctuate strongly. - Information Analysis: - Codelco is significantly raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers, with premiums of $350/ton or $335/ton above the LME price. [7] - The CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of copper ore by over 10% in 2026, and take other measures to improve the supply - demand fundamentals. [7] - In November, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month and 9.75% year - on - year, with a cumulative increase of 11.76% from January to November. [7] - On December 4, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 170 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. [8] - As of December 4, SMM's copper inventory in major regions decreased to 158,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous value. [8] - Main Logic: The expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. Copper supply disruptions are increasing, and the CSPT will reduce production in 2026. The cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to reduced production in some smelters. Although demand is weak, the spot is at a premium, and the increase in LME cancelled warrants is boosting prices. [9] - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and supply disruptions continue to increase. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [9] Alumina - View: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. - Information Analysis: - On December 4, alumina prices in various regions showed different degrees of decline or remained flat. [10] - The freight of Cape - type ships on the Guinea - to - China route has been rising, and the market sentiment and fundamentals provide dual support. [10] - On December 4, the alumina warehouse receipt was 253,320 tons, a net increase of 3,006 tons. [10] - Main Logic: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, but the supply reduction needs further observation. The domestic inventory is still increasing, and raw material prices are weak. However, as the valuation is in the low - range, price fluctuations may increase. [12] - Outlook: The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the valuation is low. Alumina prices are expected to remain volatile. [12] Aluminum - View: With the repeated macro - sentiment, aluminum prices fluctuate and rebound. - Information Analysis: - On December 4, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum was 22,020 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the premium was - 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. [13] - On December 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory remained unchanged. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt remained unchanged. [13] - The Eurasian Economic Commission will impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese aluminum foil products, with rates ranging from 17.16% to 20.24%. [13] - An Indonesian aluminum plant will start trial operation in mid - December, planning to reach full - capacity production of 500,000 tons in October 2026 and expand to 1.5 million tons in the long term. Another Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production and will reach full - capacity production of the first - phase 500,000 tons in October 2026. [14] - Main Logic: The expectation of a rate cut is rising, and the domestic economic data is weakly stable. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, while the overseas power shortage risk is emerging. Terminal demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. [14] - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise. [14] Aluminum Alloy - View: Warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the market fluctuates at a high level. - Information Analysis: - On December 4, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum was - 920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. [17] - On December 4, the SHFE registered warehouse receipt was 66,164 tons, a net increase of 1,607 tons. [17] - In October, China's scrap aluminum imports were about 155,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The main import sources were Thailand, the UK, Japan, and the US. [16] - Main Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has rebounded, but some alloy factories face production reduction risks. Demand is marginally improving, and social and warehouse receipt inventories are rising. [16] - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, with strong cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [16][18] Zinc - View: With the decline of social inventory, zinc prices will rebound in the short term. - Information Analysis: - On December 4, the premiums of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin 0 zinc against the main contract were 70 yuan/ton, - 40 yuan/ton, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. [19] - As of December 4, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons from the previous Thursday. [19] - On October 1, 29Metals' mine in Western Australia had a new earthquake, delaying the high - grade zinc ore mining and withdrawing the annual zinc production guidance. [19] - Main Logic: The Fed's dovish stance and weak economic data have increased the expectation of a December rate cut. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelting profits are good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. The domestic zinc ingot inventory may stop accumulating, and LME inventory has rebounded. [19] - Outlook: In December, zinc production is slightly down month - on - month but high year - on - year. The demand is entering the off - season, but the export window is open, and inventory may decline. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile. [19] Lead - View: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound. - Information Analysis: - On December 4, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 25 yuan/ton. [20] - On December 4, the average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,100 yuan, up 25 yuan, and the lead ingot premium was 25 yuan/ton. [20] - As of December 4, 2025, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from the previous Thursday, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt was 16,553 tons, a decrease of 76 tons. [20] - Some primary lead smelters are under maintenance, and the supply of deliverable brands is limited. Some downstream enterprises prefer to use lead ingots in social warehouses, leading to a significant reduction in social inventory. However, the smelter's factory inventory has increased, and there is a possibility of inventory transfer for delivery. [20] - Main Logic: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable, and the futures warehouse receipt is slightly down. The profit of secondary lead smelting has increased slightly, and the weekly lead ingot production has decreased. The demand for electric bicycles is slightly weak, but the demand for automobile batteries has improved, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. [20] - Outlook: Due to the maintenance of smelters, lead production is difficult to increase significantly. In December, the demand for lead ingots remains high, and the inventory will remain low. The previous negative factors suppressing lead prices have been digested, and lead prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. [21] Nickel - View: With the overall strength of non - ferrous metals, nickel prices fluctuate accordingly. - Information Analysis: - On December 4, the LME nickel inventory was 25.3116 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous day, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt was 35,096 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons from the previous day. The global visible inventory is increasing. [23] - In 2026, PT Vale Indonesia will focus on three HPAL projects with a total investment of about $9 billion. The three smelters are expected to be completed successively from the third quarter of 2026. [23] - On November 29, GEM stated that its Qingmeibang nickel resource project is operating normally, and the production plan for December is normal. [24] - On November 27, BC Jindal Group and Hindustan Power won contracts for renewable energy projects. [24] - Main Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply is relatively loose. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly decreased. The market is in excess supply, and the inventory has accumulated significantly. [24] - Outlook: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals. In the long - term, the Indonesian nickel ore policy needs further observation. [25] Stainless Steel - View: With the slight decline of nickel - iron prices, the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - Information Analysis: - The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from the previous day. [26] - On December 4, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 stainless steel against the main contract was 225 yuan/ton. [26] - On December 4, the average price of SMM10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 881 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day. [26] - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of dry - stacking tailings technology for HPAL tailings. [27] - On November 29, GEM stated that its Qingmeibang nickel resource project is operating normally, and the production plan for December is normal. [27] - Main Logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium are falling, weakening the cost support for steel prices. After the peak season, stainless - steel production decreased in November, and downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has increased during the off - season, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. [27][28] - Outlook: The current fundamentals suppress prices, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and ore - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain range - bound. [28] Tin - View: With continued supply concerns, tin prices continue to strengthen. - Information Analysis: - On December 4, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 50 tons to 3,195 tons, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 185 tons to 6,576 tons, and the SHFE tin open interest increased by 4,211 lots to 107,697 lots. [28] - On December 4, the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 tin ingot was 317,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,300 yuan/ton from the previous day. [28] - Main Logic: The supply of tin is the core concern. The复产 progress of the Wa State's mining area is slow, Indonesian tin exports are restricted, and African tin production is limited. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand for tin is expected to continue to grow due to the global economic situation and the development of related industries. [29] - Outlook: With continuous supply disruptions, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [29] Market Index - On December 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all increased, with increases of 0.11%, 0.20%, 0.41%, and 0.78% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 1.02% on the day, 2.39% in the past 5 days, 2.50% in the past month, and 10.12% since the beginning of the year. [157][158]