格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US economy shows signs of decline, with factors like weak employment data, high inflation risks, and a shift in corporate strategies, while the AI industry continues to thrive with significant developments from companies like Amazon [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - In November, US private - sector jobs decreased by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, with small businesses being the hardest - hit, losing 120,000 jobs in total [1] - US service charge prices in November rose further as companies shifted higher costs, which may hinder further interest rate cuts and suppress the financial service industry [1] - The US Commerce Secretary is supporting the robot industry, and the US Department of Transportation may announce a robot working group by the end of the year [1] - Due to the price difference between COMEX and LME, funds are flowing into the US for copper hoarding. COMEX copper inventory has exceeded 400,000 tons, a more than 300% increase from the end of last year, accounting for 62% of the total copper inventory of the three major international exchanges [1] - Amazon's self - developed AI chip Trainium2 has achieved billions of dollars in annualized revenue, with over 1 million chips in production. Amazon also released Trainium3 with 4 - times performance improvement [1] - The yield of Japan's 30 - year treasury bonds reached a record high of 3.445%, and the probability of a December interest rate hike in Japan has risen above 80% [1] - Goldman Sachs macro traders expect a fierce battle between bulls and bears in the US stock market next year. Bulls are driven by the AI boom, $600 billion in capital expenditure by tech giants, and $1.2 trillion in stock buy - back authorizations, while bears are due to high valuations, deteriorating market breadth, over - reliance on the AI theme, and consumption and credit risks in a "K - shaped economy" [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide. With weakening employment data, the probability of a December Fed rate cut has risen to 90% [2] - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, which could impact global arbitrage funds [2] - Industry insiders believe there is no AI bubble in the next three years, and companies need to significantly increase AI computing power to meet demand [2] - Morgan Chase strategists estimate that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years. US data center planning capacity has soared, and developers are building their own power plants [2] - US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far lower than expected, indicating a consumer spending cut [2] - Mass layoffs by well - known companies may be an economic warning sign [2] - The global economy is turning weak due to continuous wrong US policies [2]