金信期货日刊：聊聊沪银期货看空的三个逻辑-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - It is recommended to short Shanghai silver futures due to the fading macro - level benefits, technical callback signals, and potential variables in funds and supply - demand [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is advisable to treat the market as a high - level oscillation [8]. - For gold, it is in a complex oscillation process, and it is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. - For iron ore, it is in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support, and a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14]. - For glass, a bearish oscillation view is taken from a technical perspective [17]. - For coking coal, considering the tight supply and cautious downstream procurement, opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. - For pulp, before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - Macro - level: The rise of Shanghai silver depends on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Positive US economic data will cool down the expectation, strengthen the US dollar, and suppress silver prices. The current price has reflected a large amount of the expectation, and price decline may occur after the benefit is realized [3]. - Technical level: After the rise, Shanghai silver is prone to over - buying. Signals such as the KD value turning around above 80, MACD top divergence, price hitting the upper Bollinger Band, large deviation from short - term moving averages, long upper shadows at high levels, and price rising with volume shrinking indicate weak upward momentum, suitable for light - position short - selling trials [3]. - Funds and supply - demand: The sharp rise has led to strong profit - taking demand. A significant decrease in positions during the price rise means capital withdrawal. The high volatility of Shanghai silver is unsustainable, and short - selling volatility can be profitable when it falls. The supply of mined silver may gradually recover, alleviating the supply - demand tension [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market showed an upward trend in the afternoon after morning oscillation today. The Shanghai Composite Index was weak, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong in the afternoon. Whether the adjustment is over needs further confirmation, and the market should be treated as a high - level oscillation [8][9]. Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining strength in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting capacity has decreased, and the inventory has decreased again this week. The main driving factors are the supply - side clearance policies. Technically, a bearish oscillation view is taken as the daily line has continuously closed with negative candles [17][18]. Coking Coal - Downstream enterprises' procurement is cautious, with low inventory and mainly for rigid demand. On the supply side, some coal mines have reduced production due to underground problems, and the overall supply remains tight. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. Pulp - The Lion brand pulp mill in Canada's BC province with an annual output of 380,000 tons will permanently shut down from December, accounting for about 1.5% of the commercial bleached softwood pulp capacity. The Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso with a capacity of 650,000 tons has a one - month temporary shutdown. Affected by foreign pulp mill production cuts and capital games in deliverable products, the futures price has risen significantly. Before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23].