国债期货：跳空低开破位，谨慎观望

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report On December 4, 2025, Treasury bond futures opened lower with a gap and broke through key levels. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts declined by 1.04%, 0.35%, 0.24%, and 0.05% respectively. The report suggests a cautious wait - and - see approach [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - On December 4, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts dropped by 1.04%, 0.35%, 0.24%, and 0.05% respectively [3]. - In the money market, overnight shibor was reported at 1.3020%, up 0.1bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was at 1.4240%, down 0.2bp; 14 - day shibor was at 1.4790%, up 1.4bp; 1 - month shibor remained flat at 1.5200% [3][4]. - The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year active CTD bonds had IRRs of 1.66%, 1.91%, 1.95%, and 1.77% respectively, with R007 around 1.4837% [4]. - In the inter - bank pledged repo market on December 4, the total turnover was 2.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.77%. Overnight repo rate remained at 1.28%, 7 - day repo rate dropped 8bp to 1.40%, 14 - day repo rate dropped 3bp to 1.45%, and 1 - month repo rate rose 4bp to 1.64% [5]. - The Treasury bond yield curve showed mixed changes (2Y down 0.22BP to 1.41%; 5Y up 0.29BP to 1.62%; 10Y up 0.76BP to 1.85%; 30Y up 3.30BP to 2.24%). The credit bond yield curve also showed mixed changes (for AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes, 6M down 4.00BP to 1.63%; 1Y up 13.50BP to 1.74%; 3Y remained at 1.86%; 5Y up 13.75BP to 2.34%) [5]. [Macro and Industry News] The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are scheduled to be held in mid - and early December to plan the work for 2026 [8]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures is 0 [9].