铅锌日评：沪铅震荡偏强；沪锌震荡整理-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - Lead: SMM research shows that the supply of raw materials for recycled lead smelters has tightened recently, and some smelters may reduce production due to raw material shortages. With improved macro - sentiment, the lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The trading strategy is to try long positions at low prices [1]. - Zinc: The supply of zinc concentrate is tightening, and the treatment charge is likely to decline. Although the supply of zinc ingots is currently stable, the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be mainly range - bound, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - Lead: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 17,100 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price is 17,245 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 1,998.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 37,288 lots, up 38.02%, and the open interest is 46,582 lots, down 0.10%. The LME inventory is 248,050 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 16,553 tons, down 0.46% [1]. - Zinc: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots is 22,920 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the futures main contract closing price is 22,865 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 3,062 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 164,347 lots, up 54.44%, and the open interest is 105,684 lots, up 1.05%. The LME inventory is 54,325 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 62,028 tons, down 2.47% [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Lead: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the treatment charge is likely to rise. The start - up rate of primary lead and recycled lead has declined, and the inventory of primary lead has increased while that of recycled lead has decreased. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. - Zinc: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc concentrates, and the domestic supply of concentrates is tight, with the treatment charge expected to decline. The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side is still weak [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Lead: Try to go long at low prices [1]. - Zinc: Wait and see [1].