尿素早评：短期注意回调风险，仍以逢低做多为主-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, and it is still recommended to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea reflects the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, but from a driving perspective, the price is supported at low levels, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1,688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.24% from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1,745 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17% from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1,763 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.28% from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.79% from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.95% from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.18% from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1,730 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.17% from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.19% from December 3 [1] Basis and Spread - Direct spread (Shandong spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Cost - Henan anthracite price: On December 4, it was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi anthracite price: On December 4, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3,100 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.31% from December 3 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: On December 4, it was 2,640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.76% from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5,217 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,694 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 209,270 lots [1] Long - Short Logic - Urea's rebound from the bottom has been small, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. A new round of export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate reserve - holding enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1]