美国招聘数据中的早期证据：生成式人工智能时代的劳动力需求

Group 1: Impact of Generative AI on Labor Demand - Generative AI has led to a 12% average decrease in job postings for occupations with above-median AI replacement scores, while those with below-median scores saw an increase[4] - The negative impact on job postings escalated from 6% in the first year post-ChatGPT launch to 18% by the third year[4] - Entry-level positions, particularly those not requiring higher education or extensive experience, experienced significant losses of 18% to 20%, with administrative support roles seeing a 40% decline[4] Group 2: Methodology and Data Analysis - The analysis utilized 285 million job postings from Lightcast, covering the period from Q1 2018 to Q2 2025, to assess the causal impact of generative AI on labor demand[4] - A difference-in-differences (DiD) approach was employed, comparing labor demand changes in high-risk versus low-risk occupations following the November 2022 release of ChatGPT[4] - The study's framework included a dual dimension of AI exposure and replacement vulnerability to isolate the displacement effects of generative AI[18] Group 3: Industry Insights and Future Implications - The findings suggest that while generative AI may create new jobs and enhance productivity, certain occupations are less likely to be complemented by AI, indicating a need for targeted support for vulnerable workers[4] - The research highlights the necessity for policy discussions on mitigating the potential impacts of AI on low-skill and entry-level jobs, which are disproportionately affected[24]