交银国际每日晨报-20251205

Group 1: Technology Industry - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the artificial intelligence (AI) supercycle may continue, with strong growth in AI infrastructure expected at least until 2026, driven by significant capital expenditure increases from major cloud providers, projected to grow over 30% in 2026 following over 60% growth in 2024 and 2025 [1][2] - The report highlights a persistent supply-demand imbalance in computing acceleration and network communication chips, with overall demand remaining high despite potential increases in supply [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate domestic substitution opportunities in key industrial chains, supported by favorable policies during this period [1] Group 2: Semiconductor and AI Infrastructure - The recovery in terminal demand is noted to be moderate, with strong demand for servers closely related to AI, while global consumer electronics demand for 2026 is viewed with caution due to the prolonged price increases in memory chips [2] - Investment recommendations include overseas chip design and foundry companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA US), Broadcom (AVGO US), and TSMC (TSM US), which are expected to benefit from AI infrastructure development [2] - Domestic AI and substitution opportunities are also highlighted, with companies like Northern Huachuang (002371 CH), OmniVision (603501 CH), Zhongwei Company (688012 CH), and Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) recommended for investment [2] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report indicates that the transition to an inquiry-based procurement model for the 1-8 batch of national procurement may limit overall price reductions, suggesting a smaller-than-expected impact on Hong Kong prescription drug companies [3] - The healthcare sector's performance is noted, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 0.5%, although it underperformed the broader market [3] - Investment insights suggest a focus on innovative drugs and stable traditional companies, with a positive outlook on the innovation theme in the long term [3][6] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Performance - The report includes key economic data releases from the US and China, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI figures indicating varying market expectations [7] - The performance of major global indices is summarized, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,936, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 29.05% [4] - Commodity prices and foreign exchange rates are also provided, showing significant fluctuations in various markets, which may impact investment strategies [5]