宁证期货今日早评-20251205

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The short - term steel price of rebar may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [1]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias as the US economy is under pressure and the market's expectation of future interest rate cuts increases [1]. - The main contract price of ferrosilicon is expected to remain low as the cost is firm but the market supply - demand is still loose [3]. - Coking coal should be viewed as short - term volatile, with a slight rebound in the futures market and waiting for downstream restocking [4]. - Hog prices will be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short at appropriate times and farmers should hedge at appropriate times [5]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate between 2820 - 2860, and follow - up policies and import news should be focused on [6][7]. - The bond market will be short - term volatile and bearish, but the downside space is limited [7]. - Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and whether gold and silver will diverge should be noted [7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and follow - up Fed interest rate cut decisions should be monitored [8]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate slightly weakly in the short term due to high port inventory [9]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term downward trend has not ended [9][10]. - PVC market price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply is high and demand is weak [10]. - It is advisable to wait and see in the crude oil market as supply surplus restricts price increases [11]. - PTA should be considered with a bullish - biased oscillation idea, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly as downstream demand is weak [12]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Rebar - As of the week of December 4, rebar production was 189.31 tons, a decrease of 16.77 tons (8.14%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 142.68 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons (2.76%); social inventory was 361.13 tons, a decrease of 23.62 tons (6.14%); apparent demand was 216.98 tons, a decrease of 10.96 tons (4.81%). Production and apparent demand have declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventories have declined for eight consecutive weeks [1]. 2. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022. US private data showed that non - farm employment decreased by 9,000 in November, and the October data was revised downwards. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [1]. 3. Ferrosilicon - The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 73,050 tons, a decrease of 10.21% (8,310 tons) month - on - month. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu all saw inventory decreases. The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is loose and prices have limited upside [3]. 4. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.6%, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month. Raw coal daily output decreased by 0.9 tons, and raw coal and clean coal inventories increased. Some domestic coal mines were affected by safety inspections, while Mongolian coal imports remained high. The real demand for furnace materials is weak, but the market has a short - term rebound [4]. 5. Hog - On December 4, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 17.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous day. The supply of hogs exceeds demand, and prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. 6. Palm Oil - Due to declining exports and record - high production in November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high. The market is waiting for the MPOB report on December 10 to provide guidance [5]. 7. Soybean Meal - Brazil's soybean export volume in December is expected to be 2.81 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to be 1.33 million tons. China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans is progressing slowly, and the domestic breeding industry is weak, limiting the growth of soybean meal demand [6][7]. 8. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly increased. The year - end capital market may tighten marginally, which is negative for the bond market, but the downside space is limited [7]. 9. Gold - The US White House official said that the Fed may cut interest rates by about 25 basis points in the next meeting. If a dovish chairman takes office, it will be negative for gold [7]. 10. Aluminum - The ADP employment data in the US in November was weak, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is limited, demand has resilience, and the prices of copper and silver in the non - ferrous metal sector also drive up aluminum prices [8]. 11. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate is high, downstream demand has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. High port inventory restricts the upside of prices [9]. 12. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 3.15% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 3.07%. The demand for soda ash is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the high - level inventory of manufacturers is difficult to resolve [9][10]. 13. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 4,460 yuan/ton. The operating rate is expected to increase, supply is high, social inventory continues to accumulate, and domestic demand is in the off - season [10]. 14. Crude Oil - The time for reaching a phased Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation plan is postponed, and the relationship between the US and Venezuela is tense, increasing geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, but the supply surplus restricts price increases [11]. 15. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days. PTA supply reduction is more than expected, but the weakening terminal demand restricts the upside of prices [11]. 16. Rubber - The price of Thai rubber latex is 55.5 Thai baht/kg. The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year. Tire operating rates are low, and downstream demand is weak [12].