格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the fourth - quarter macro - economy. The stock and bond markets were both weak on Thursday. After the sharp short - term decline in Treasury bond futures, a rebound may be brewing. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened lower across the board. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 1.04%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.35%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.24%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05% [1] Important Information 1. Open Market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 356.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [1] 2. Funding Market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.30% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44% throughout the day, also the same as the previous trading day [1] 3. Cash Bond Market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly increased compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.83 basis points to 1.41%, the 5 - year increased by 2.64 basis points to 1.65%, the 10 - year increased by 1.99 basis points to 1.87%, and the 30 - year increased by 4.10 basis points to 2.28% [1] 4. Central Bank Operation: On December 5th, the central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (91 days) through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. The 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation matures on the same day, with an equal - amount roll - over [1] 5. US Unemployment Data: On Thursday, it was announced that the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 191,000, lower than the estimated 220,000 and the previous value of 216,000. The number of continuing jobless claims two weeks ago fell back to 1.939 million but remained close to the highest level since 2021, reflecting a co - existence of a slowdown in new job cuts and difficulties for the long - term unemployed to find new jobs [1] Market Logic - In October, due to factors such as a higher base in the same period of the previous year and a relatively rapid increase in financial expenses, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the eighth consecutive month. The service business activity index in November was 49.5%, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time this year. The new orders in the service industry reached a new low this year [1][2] Stock Market Performance - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened roughly flat, slightly declined in the morning session and then rebounded, and fluctuated narrowly in the afternoon. It closed with a doji star, up 0.01% from the previous trading day, but the number of falling stocks was more than twice that of rising stocks. The trading volume was 1.56 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 1.68 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]