蛋白粕,油脂：五矿期货农产品早报-20251205

Group 1: General Information - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on December 5, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Market Information - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, Brazilian soybean premiums increased, and the cost of imported soybeans slightly rose. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton. Meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. Last week, feed enterprises' inventory days were 8.17 days, up 0.19 days from the previous week. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week due to high crushing volume, and apparent consumption was flat compared to the previous period [2] - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 89% of the expected area. USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. However, since the global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio for the forecast year is still relatively high, it is not enough to generate a market with high planting profits on the CBOT soybean futures. It is expected that the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate without significant problems in South American weather [3] Strategy - The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, soybean meal inventory is large, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared to the same period last month, is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increase by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to slightly correct in the near future. Market expectations of a large month - on - month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in November may cause inventories to rise to a six - and - a - half - year high, waiting for MPOB data. Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and concerns about floods have eased, which is negative for palm oil prices. However, the expected production cut in November is starting to materialize, and rainfall in the producing areas will increase seasonally in December, supporting the price bottom. The correction is expected to be limited [7] - On Thursday, domestic fats and oils gave back some gains, and foreign investors increased short positions in the three major fats and oils. The expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in November and less purchasing by India in November are suppressing the market. There is still an expectation of destocking in the medium term, waiting for clear data [8] Strategy - Excessive production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia is suppressing the market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot continue, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - correction strategy [10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,410 - 5,510 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,820 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot sugar to the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 82 yuan/ton [11] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; as of the end of November, the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and sugar production was 983,000 tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [11] Strategy - It is currently estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve much. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction is still bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are already at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall [12] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B to the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,208 yuan/ton [14] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared to last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 72.1%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production in the latest USDA monthly supply - demand report was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the US production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; India's production remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [15] Strategy - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force for now. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trending market is not high [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao remained at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was basically normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory in each link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg prices will mostly be stable, with a few declining [19] Strategy - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. In the short term, this reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts on the futures market cannot be falsified for now. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal stocking ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [20] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined, with some areas stable or slightly rising. The average price in Henan rose 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 11.34 yuan/kg. Farmers were active in selling pigs, the market supply was abundant, and the demand was also slowly increasing. Today, pig prices are expected to be mainly stable, with prices in areas with large supply continuing to decline, and prices in some northern areas with limited supply may rise slightly [22] Strategy - The theoretical number of pigs for slaughter is still large, the completion rate of large - scale farms' slaughter plans is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the release of second - fattening pens by small farmers is slow. The supply - side pressure remains, and there will be further increases in the future. In contrast, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic curing activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures valuation is not low and the spot market is driving the price down, a strategy of shorting the near - month contracts or reverse arbitrage is recommended [23]