国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251205

Report Overview - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, while cost limits the downside risk [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The pace of inventory reduction is slowing, and the price may face upward pressure [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Expected to perform weakly [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipt registration [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,760 yuan, down 110 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,425 yuan, down 40 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 143,077 lots, an increase of 17,837 lots [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Multiple events occurred, including the Indonesian forestry working group taking over part of the nickel - mining area, China suspending non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Indonesia implementing sanctions on mining companies [4][5]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 92,260 yuan, up 200 yuan; the trading volume was 101,978 lots, a decrease of 11,379 lots. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 93,700 yuan, up 40 yuan; the trading volume was 663,458 lots, an increase of 20,135 lots [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 534 yuan/ton. Weekly production increased by 74 tons, and inventory decreased by 2366 tons. Vulcan Energy obtained nearly $2.5 billion in financing for a lithium project [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 8,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume was 152,172 lots, an increase of 6,173 lots. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 56,915 yuan/ton, down 515 yuan; the trading volume was 175,576 lots, a decrease of 6,849 lots [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area issued measures to promote green - low - carbon development [14]. - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16].