尿素：逐步进入震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental driver of urea is currently neutral, and the short - term futures price is gradually entering a shock pattern. The subsequent upward movement of the driver depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The basic face supports the price due to the continuous reduction of explicit inventory, and the valuation range has shifted upward in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,694 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the trading volume was 155,992 lots, an increase of 35,372 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 209,271 lots, a decrease of 282 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,353 tons, an increase of 1,588 tons; the trading volume was 5.28492 billion yuan, an increase of 1.20684 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 22 yuan, an increase of 34 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the disk was - 138 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the disk was 12 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan; the spread between UR01 - UR05 was - 57 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] - Spot Market: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while the price of Hebei Dongguang increased by 10 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 30 yuan to 1,710 yuan/ton and 1,570 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 79.60%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points, and the daily output was 192,480 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons [1] 3.2 Industry News - On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, mainly due to the continuous restocking of reserve demand, the recovery of compound fertilizer industrial demand, and the promotion of some export demands. The inventory decreased in 13 provinces and increased in 6 provinces [2] - The demand side, with the combination of reserve and export, has led to a phased improvement in the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral. Whether the driver can turn upward depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. Currently, the fundamentals driver of urea is considered neutral, and the explicit inventory has continuously decreased, supporting the price. In terms of valuation, the short - term valuation range has shifted upward. The short - term static valuation pressure on the futures is at 1,700 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1,700 yuan/ton. The lower support for the 01 contract is expected to be at 1,580 - 1,600 yuan/ton [2][3]