镍与不锈钢日评：修复后区间震荡-20251205

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251205: Range-bound after Recovery [1] Market Data Summary Shanghai Nickel Futures - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 117,600 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and the open interest decreased by 577 lots. The inventory was 32,595 tons, a decrease of 2,501 tons [2]. - The price differences between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures also showed certain changes, such as the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton [2]. LME Nickel - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 14,830 US dollars/ton on December 4, 2025. The trading volume was 5,302 lots, a decrease of 3,162 lots. The inventory was 253,116 tons, an increase of 126 tons [2]. Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 84,742 lots, an increase of 4,381 lots, and the open interest decreased by 871 lots. The inventory was 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons [2]. Core Views Nickel - On December 4, the main nickel contract oscillated within a range. The supply side had stable nickel ore prices, increased nickel ore arrivals at ports last week with inventory depletion at ports. Nickel - iron mills' losses deepened, with domestic and Indonesian production schedules decreasing in December. Electrolytic nickel production schedules increased in December, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed. The demand side saw a decline in ternary precursor production, a decrease in stainless - steel mill production schedules, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. With inventory increasing in SHFE, LME, and the social sector, and decreasing in the bonded area, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure. Considering the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, after the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2]. Stainless Steel - On December 4, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. Inventory in SHFE decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. In terms of supply, stainless - steel production decreased in December, and the 300 - series production schedule declined. The terminal demand was weak. The high - grade ferronickel price decreased, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained stable. With loose fundamentals and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Investment Strategies Nickel - The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [2]. Stainless Steel - The trading strategy is to short on rallies, with a view score of 0 [2]