LLDPE：基差回落，供应仍宽松

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The LLDPE market has a falling basis and a still - loose supply. The mid - term needs to focus on the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 was 6776, with a daily decline of 0.47%. The trading volume was 347,191, and the open interest decreased by 16,226 [1]. - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 01 contract was - 56 (previous day: - 58), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 53 (previous day: - 66) [1]. - Spot Prices: In the North China region, the price was 6720 yuan/ton (previous day: 6750 yuan/ton); in the East China region, it was 6900 yuan/ton (unchanged); in the South China region, it was 6850 yuan/ton (previous day: 6880 yuan/ton) [1]. [Spot News] - The futures market declined slightly, the basis of North China LL weakened to a discount again, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. The spot market was inactive. Petrochemical enterprises lowered some ex - factory prices, and traders focused on selling goods. Downstream inquiries were mainly for small - batch orders, with low intention to take delivery, and the transaction volume was difficult to increase. The US offer volume decreased with a small price drop, and the shipping schedules from the Middle East and the US were delayed, with more arrivals expected in Q1 2026 [1]. [Market Condition Analysis] - The raw material crude oil price fluctuated, the monomer segment rebounded slightly, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane was compressed. The PE market fluctuated at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand weakened marginally, while the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of middle and downstream players to hold goods weakened, and the upstream tried to support prices, leading to passive inventory accumulation in factories and a slightly stronger basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical gradually started production, but the unplanned maintenance volume in November increased more than expected, and there was no major short - term contradiction [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The LLDPE trend intensity was 0 [2].