Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - On December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. It is expected that the medium - and long - term monetary policy will remain moderately loose [7][8]. - The macro - environment for the black sector is generally positive, but the black market has no conditions for a trending rise. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and coking coal's far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank's Monetary Operations - On December 4, the central bank announced that on December 5, it would conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 3 - month (91 - day) term. Since 100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase is due in December, it means an equal - amount roll - over. It is also expected that the central bank will conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation this month, with a high possibility of an increased - amount roll - over. The central bank has basically formed a medium - and long - term capital injection model [8]. Black Sector - Overall situation: The fundamentals of the black sector are mediocre, waiting for macro - drivers. The macro environment is generally positive, but steel inventories are high, demand weakens seasonally, and the black industry chain is in a stage of production cut and inventory reduction [10]. - Iron ore: The profitability of steel mills has been continuously compressed, and iron ore's rigid demand has decreased. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, but there is demand for winter stockpiling by steel mills, so short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [10]. - Coking coal: The settlement price of the coking coal 2512 futures contract is 969.5 yuan/ton, at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the spot. The far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Commodity Futures - Precious metals: Gold's expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, and silver has fluctuated downward. The trend intensity of both is 1 [13][16][19]. - Base metals: - Copper: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][21][23]. - Zinc: Supply has been cut, and prices are on the strong side, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][24][26]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][27][28]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][30][32]. - Aluminum: The fundamentals are resilient; alumina continues to decline; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities are 1, - 1, and 1 respectively [13][33][35]. - Platinum and palladium: Platinum trades thinly and fluctuates sideways; palladium consolidates sideways. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][36][38]. - Nickel and stainless steel: Nickel's fundamentals limit its upward potential and it fluctuates at a low level; stainless steel has high inventories, weak supply and demand, and cost limits its downward potential. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][40][44]. - Energy and chemical products: - Carbonate lithium: The marginal slowdown of inventory reduction may put pressure on the upper side, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][45][48]. - Industrial silicon: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][49][52]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][50][52]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The market has a long - short game and wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][56][59]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon: Silicon iron's electricity cost has risen, and it fluctuates strongly; manganese silicon's ore - end quotation is firm, and it also fluctuates strongly. The trend intensities of both are 1 [13][61][65]. - Coke and coking coal: They fluctuate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [13][66][67]. - Log: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][68][71]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene is supported by cost and fluctuates at a high level; PTA fluctuates at a high level unilaterally; MEG's price hits a new low and trends weakly. The trend intensities are 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [13][72][77]. - Rubber and synthetic rubber: Rubber fluctuates; synthetic rubber fluctuates downward. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][79][85]. - Asphalt: It fluctuates at a low level, and factory inventories have a slight increase, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][86][94]. - LLDPE: The basis has declined, and the supply is still loose, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][96][98]. - PP: The medium - term trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][99][101]. - Caustic soda: The trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][103][105]. - Pulp: It fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][107][109]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][112][114]. - Methanol: It runs under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][116][120]. - Urea: It gradually enters a fluctuating pattern, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][121][123]. - Styrene: It fluctuates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - Soda ash: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of - 1 [128]. - LPG and propylene: LPG's trend is under pressure; propylene's pattern remains loose. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [130][131][135]. - PVC: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [139][140]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: Fuel oil rebounds slightly and may temporarily get out of the weak situation; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens at night, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][142]. - Container shipping index (European line): Affected by geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][144][157]. - Agricultural products: - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][158][159]. - Offset printing paper: Long positions should be closed at an appropriate time, with a trend intensity of 0 [160][161]. - Pure benzene: It fluctuates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][165][166]. - Palm oil and soybean oil: Palm oil is waiting for the inflection point to be confirmed and is traded within a range for the time being; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and fluctuates mainly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][168][173]. - Soybean meal and soybeans: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal fluctuated; the spot price of soybeans is stable and strong, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][174][176]. - Corn: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][177][180]. - Sugar: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][181][183]. - Cotton: Supply and demand are both strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][185][188]. - Eggs: Culling continues, and the spot price fluctuates mainly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][191]. - Hogs: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic returns, with a trend intensity of - 2 [13][193][196]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][198][200].
国泰君安期货所长早读-20251205
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-05 02:12