中泰期货晨会纪要-20251205

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. Some sectors are affected by policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, while others are influenced by geopolitical and macro - economic factors. For example, the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - long term, while the LPG market is currently strong but may not be sustainable [10][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - Fundamental Analysis: Some commodities are judged as trend空头 (such as烧碱), some as震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and trend多头. For example,烧碱 is in a trend - bearish state, while中证1000指数期货 is in an oscillating and bullish - biased state [2]. - Quantitative Analysis: Some commodities are classified as偏空 (e.g.,沪锌), 震荡 (e.g.,沪金), and偏多 (e.g.,焦煤) based on technical indicators such as volume and price [4]. 2. Macro - financial - Stock Index Futures: Adopt an oscillating strategy and temporarily wait and see. A - share market shows differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.01%. The trading volume is 1.56 trillion yuan. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is further heating up [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may continue to have a wide - range oscillating trend. Pay attention to the curve steepening in the medium term. The capital is loose, and the bond market has been falling, with the long - end driving the short - end interest - rate curve to become steeper [9]. 3. Black Commodities - Steel and Ore: In the short term, they will oscillate and consolidate, and in the medium - long term, maintain a bearish view when the price is high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the steel mills' profits are at a low level. The iron ore is relatively strong, while the raw materials such as coal and coke are weak [10]. - Coal and Coke: In the short term, they may oscillate and consolidate. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety supervision, and changes in downstream molten - iron output [11]. - Ferroalloys: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon. It is recommended to hold the long - silicon - iron and short - manganese - silicon position. For silicon iron, hold the long position, and for manganese silicon, maintain a bearish view when the price is high [14]. 4. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: Wait and see. The supply has recovered, but the upstream's willingness to start production has weakened after the cost increase. - Glass: In the short term, try to go long when the price is low, and leave the market flexibly when the sentiment changes. The market expects an increase in cold - repair of the supply side, and pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans [15]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [17]. - Lead: The social inventory has decreased to a 15 - month low. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions cautiously [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, it will oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand is good [21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, and it is possible to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see and operate cautiously [22]. 6. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not fully recovered. The high cost supports the price to oscillate and rebound [24]. - Sugar: The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure. The domestic new - crop production is increasing, and the import cost is low. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [25]. - Eggs: For the near - month contracts, adopt an oscillating strategy. The 01 contract is recommended to stop loss and wait and see. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible shortage in inventory but are under pressure at the current high valuation [26]. - Apples: The price will oscillate. The出库 volume has slightly decreased recently, and the spot price is stable [27]. - Corn: The short - term 01 contract will maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts are likely to be weak [29]. - Red Dates: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable [30]. - Pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. Hold short positions in the near - month contracts. In the long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to the future pig price [31]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Although there is short - term support, it is in a long - term downward trend. The supply - demand relationship is expected to be oversupplied, and the short - term upward space is limited [33]. - Fuel Oil: The price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical influence [34]. - Plastic: The supply pressure is large, and it will oscillate weakly. It is recommended that industrial customers hedge in time [35]. - Rubber: The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Unilaterally, wait and see [36]. - Synthetic Rubber: After the sentiment fades, it will oscillate. Be cautious about chasing up or down, and wait and see unilaterally [37]. - Methanol: The near - month contracts will oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts may be slightly bullish if the inventory is removed smoothly [38]. - Caustic Soda: In the short term, maintain a bearish and oscillating view, and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [39]. - Asphalt: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The supply - demand structure is generally stable, and the price is mainly determined by the cost. Pay attention to the interval opportunities of long TA and short PF and ethylene glycol reverse arbitrage [41]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short at high prices [43]. - Paper Pulp: Temporarily wait and see. When the delivery profit is obvious, long positions can take profit appropriately [44]. - Logs: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure [44]. - Urea: The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. Adopt an intraday oscillating strategy [45].