20251205申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251205

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices closed slightly lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break-even point. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, household appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disturbances in mines have led to a global copper supply-demand deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night-time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, household appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the current bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Prices and Market Data - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 90,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,434 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 88.38 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 162,150 tons with a daily increase of 350 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,055 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,888 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 533,400 tons with a daily decrease of 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,820 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,085 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 186.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 52,450 tons with a daily increase of 75 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,885 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 196.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 252,990 tons with a daily decrease of 84 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,016 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,150 tons with a daily decrease of 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 315,520 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 9,790 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 40,540 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 133.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,195 tons with a daily increase of 50 tons [2].