PP：中期趋势仍有压力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The PP trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), and -1 suggests a weak bearish sentiment [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term PP market is relatively strong, but the medium - term trend still faces significant pressure. Supply is currently high, which is a major factor suppressing the market. Although recent trading has improved due to low - price - driven short - term restocking, the peak demand period has passed. In the long run, factors such as cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand will dominate the market in the first half of 2026. However, low PP profits also limit the potential for further price drops [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2601 was 6382, with a daily decline of 0.39%. The trading volume was 228,079, and the open interest decreased by 9112. The 01 - contract basis was - 132 (compared to - 160 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 96 (compared to - 94 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China were in the range of 6170 - 6300 yuan/ton, in East China 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, and in South China 6290 - 6450 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market rose first and then fell this week, with a limited change in the price center. As of Thursday, the weekly average price of East China wire drawing was 6333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (0.14% decline) from the previous week. The regional spread of wire drawing slightly widened, and the spread between wire drawing and low - melt co - polymer continued to narrow slightly [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The high supply is currently the main factor suppressing the market. Although recent trading has improved due to low - price - driven short - term restocking, the peak demand period has passed. In the long run, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand will dominate the market in the first half of 2026. Low PP profits also limit the potential for further price drops [2].