国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising. - Silver: It is experiencing an oscillatory decline. - Copper: The strong spot market is supporting prices. - Zinc: Supply cuts are leading to a relatively strong price trend. - Lead: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. - Tin: There are new disruptions in supply. - Aluminum: The fundamentals are resilient. - Alumina: It is continuing to reach new lows. - Cast aluminum alloy: It is following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. - Platinum: Trading is light and prices are moving sideways. - Palladium: It is in a sideways consolidation phase. - Nickel: Fundamentals are limiting the upside potential, and prices are oscillating at low levels. - Stainless steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand conditions are present, while costs are limiting the downside potential [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T+D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 decreased by 12,624, while that of Comex Gold 2512 increased by 73,570. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 90,873 kilograms. - Spread: The spread between Gold T+D and AU2512 remained at -1.37. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold is 1 [4]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512 and Silver T+D increased by 4.46% and 4.72% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 increased by 42,518. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 14,820 kilograms. - Spread: The spread between Silver T+D and AG2510 increased by 89. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of silver is 1 [4]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract increased by 0.33%, and that of LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 2.72%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 12,209, while that of LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 22,801. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 1,599 tons, while that of LME Copper increased by 350 tons. - Spread: The spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 20. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 1 [9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 0.48%, and that of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.21%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 57,931, and that of LME Zinc increased by 5,145. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 1,569 tons, while that of LME Zinc increased by 1,875 tons. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 1 [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract increased by 0.20%, and that of LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.25%. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract increased by 10,271, and that of LME Lead increased by 599. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 76 tons, and that of LME Lead decreased by 5,100 tons. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 0.50%, while that of LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.15%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 41,348. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 27 tons, and that of LME Tin remained unchanged. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 0 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract increased, while that of Shanghai Alumina's main contract decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract increased, while that of Shanghai Alumina's main contract decreased. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, that of alumina is -1, and that of aluminum alloy is 1 [21]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of platinum and palladium showed different degrees of change. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum decreased, while that of NYMEX Platinum decreased by 5,312. - Inventory: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum remained unchanged. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of platinum and palladium is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract decreased by 110, and that of stainless steel's main contract decreased by 40. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract decreased by 9,126, and that of stainless steel's main contract increased by 17,837. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [28].