化工日报：织造订单加速转弱，聚酯负荷维持-20251205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited. Long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - end: Brent oil prices range from $60 - 65 per barrel. OPEC+ agreed to keep production stable next year, and eight major oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 next year, partially alleviating oil price pressure, but the overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, and geopolitical and macro events may affect market sentiment. PX load remains high, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and processing fees are expected to gradually improve in the long - run. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period). Although weaving orders are weakening, the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% due to low inventory in polyester factories. PF has good fundamentals but weakening demand, and the processing fee is slightly compressed. PR's fundamentals change little, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 32 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 184 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 266 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan increase from the previous period). The PXN of PX is 286 dollars/ton (a 2.25 - dollar increase from the previous period) [1] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load can be maintained at a high level, and PXN has support under the support of polyester operation. The PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve in the long - run [1][3] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - India's BIS cancellation has boosted PTA export demand [1] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - PX load remains high, and PTA has concentrated maintenance recently, and the supply - demand situation has improved [1][3] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Polyester factory inventory is currently low [2] Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period), and it is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 183 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period). Short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level. However, downstream demand is weakening, and the processing fee is slightly compressed [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 445 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]