现货价格上调，接货情绪放缓

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea spot prices have increased, but the sentiment for taking delivery has slowed. The operating rates of compound fertilizer in Northeast China and Hubei have continued to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall improvement in the operating rate. The melamine plant has resumed production, with the operating rate rebounding and rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage continues to purchase. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to - long term. The gas - based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter will gradually start in December. Due to the follow - up of reserve demand, export stocking, and the improvement of compound fertilizer operating rate, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation, which is expected to support the spot market. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down, and continuous attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8][13][15] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][30][32] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [29][34][37][44] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventories, port inventories, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [50][53][56] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton (- 4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (+ 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,700 yuan/ton (+ 20). The price of small - piece anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 22 yuan/ton (+ 34), in Henan was 22 yuan/ton (+ 24), and in Jiangsu was 12 yuan/ton (+ 24). The urea production profit was 180 yuan/ton (+ 30), and the export profit was 928 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] Supply Side - As of December 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 million tons (- 73,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons (+ 5,000 tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.53% (+ 3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+ 0.86%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 7.35 days (+ 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]