债市连续走跌，国债期货全线收跌

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been declining, with all Treasury bond futures closing down. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Influenced by the stock market, along with the continuation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increase in global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is also uncertain [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% growth rate; M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change rate; the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, with a 0.41% growth rate [10]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index was 99.06, with a 0.20% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.0638, with a 0.08% growth rate; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with a - 0.14% change rate; DR007 was 1.44, with a - 0.23% change rate; R007 was 1.51, with a - 1.24% change rate; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.62, with a 1.20% growth rate; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a 1.20% growth rate [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows charts of Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance [25][26]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides charts of the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and (2TS - 3*TF + T) [33][34][36]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [36][37][46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [48][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][68]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of Treasury bond futures falls [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].