农产品日报：晚富士消费持续疲软，红枣部分市场价格偏乱-20251205

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the report's industry is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current season's apple market is affected by the storage structure, leading to a significant price polarization. In the short - to - medium - term, with the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day stocking, the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the shortage of high - quality apples and peak - season demand. However, the market is currently in a slow - moving off - season, with weak consumer demand and competition from citrus fruits [1][2][4]. - Red dates: The market is in a "new - old season transition" period. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality this year is better than last year. The market has a pessimistic outlook due to large inventory pressure and unsolved supply - demand contradictions. The futures price trend depends on the terminal market's acceptance of new - season high - price spot goods [8][9]. Group 3: Apple Market Summary Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract was 9,605 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton or 1.10% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP05 - 1405 and AP05 - 1205 increased by 107 compared to the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - Inventory trading of late Fuji is slow. In the western production areas, there is sporadic sourcing by merchants, mainly for two - grade fruit farmer's supply, with limited transactions. In Shandong, there is sporadic warehousing out, and the export of small fruits has slowed. Terminal market consumption is slow, and the low - price competition from citrus fruits has an impact. The inventory trading is light, the warehousing - out speed is slow, and the merchants' sourcing enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that today's transactions will remain light and prices will be mainly stable [2]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and declined yesterday. The inventory of late Fuji in western and Shandong production areas is mainly warehoused out on a sporadic and as - needed basis. Merchants' sourcing enthusiasm is generally low, and they mainly replenish in small quantities or supply the market with their self - stored goods. The warehousing - out progress in the production areas slowed down last week, and the merchants' ordering enthusiasm decreased. The sales area market has slow digestion, and citrus fruits have an obvious impact on medium - and lower - quality apples. It is expected to remain in an off - season market in the short term, with prices mainly stable [3]. Strategy - The strategy is to be bullish with fluctuations. Considering the impact of the storage structure this season, quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium - term, the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [4]. Group 4: Red Dates Market Summary Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 9,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 530 increased by 25 compared to the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - The acquisition progress of grey dates in Xinjiang production areas is 80% - 90%. The acquisition in the Third Division and Maigaiti areas is relatively fast, with only some low - quality and price - holding sellers remaining. The mainstream purchase prices vary by region. In the sales areas, the Hebei Cuierzhuang and Guangdong Ruyifang markets have sufficient supply. The new - season dates have a large price difference due to cost and quality. Some holders are selling at a discount, and the transaction price is weakly stable. Downstream merchants are purchasing as needed [6][7]. Market Analysis - The red dates futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The sales areas have sufficient supply, mainly trading new - season dates with large price differences due to cost and quality. Some holders are selling at a discount, and the transaction price is weakly stable. The market is in a "new - old season transition" period. The new - season production reduction is strongly expected but the extent is undetermined, and the quality is better than last year. The acquisition enthusiasm in the sales area spot market has decreased after the continuous price decline. The inventory of 36 sample points has been accumulating, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market has a pessimistic outlook for the future [8]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - price new - season spot goods in the production area, the futures price will move closer to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. According to the 2025 red dates delivery rule modification by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the old - season red dates can still participate in delivery with lower costs than the new - season ones, so the near - month contracts may still have some room for decline [9].