Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The non - ferrous sector is strong, driving up the lead price. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [1][3] Market News and Key Data Spot - On December 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.64 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] Futures - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 17,240 yuan/ton, closed at 17,245 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,288 lots, up 10,271 lots, and the position was 46,582 lots, down 45 lots. The night - session closed at 17,305 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between futures and spot narrowed slightly, and the market trading was okay [2] Inventory - On December 4, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 24,000 tons, down 7,100 tons from last week. The LME lead inventory was 248,050 tons, down 5,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Maintain a neutral view. In the fourth quarter, the resumption of recycled lead production was less than expected, primary lead producers were reluctant to sell due to maintenance, and the industry chain maintained low inventory. The negative lead concentrate processing fee provided effective cost support. The battery production increased month - on - month but the terminal demand was average, and the closure of the import window weakened the overseas impact. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]
新能源及有色金属日报：有色板块整体偏强，带动铅价同样走高-20251205
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-05 03:08