液化石油气日报：外盘保持坚挺，PDH装置利润承压-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent strength of the external market provides some support to the domestic market, but the upward driving force on the futures market is still limited [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On December 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market 4000 - 4160 yuan/ton; North China market 4250 - 4470 yuan/ton; East China market 4270 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4600 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4350 - 4520 yuan/ton; South China market 4400 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 590 and 582 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4594 and 4532 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 yuan/ton. In South China, they were 583 and 575 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4540 and 4478 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 and 15 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, Saudi Aramco's December CP increased, and the external swap price maintained a volatile and strong trend, raising the LPG import cost. In the spot market, the price in the East China region rose moderately yesterday, while the prices in other regions remained stable, with a general trading atmosphere and controllable upstream inventory pressure [1] - In terms of fundamentals, the Middle - East supply has tightened marginally recently, the maintenance of Kuwait's Azour refinery has been extended, and the domestic refinery supply is relatively stable. Overseas supply is tightened in the short - term but remains relatively loose in the medium - term. In terms of demand, the combustion - end demand is acceptable; in the deep - processing sector, the operating rate of PDH plants is still limited by profit factors [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [2]