燃料油日报：盘面小幅反弹，短期市场矛盾有限-20251205

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 2,442 yuan/ton overnight, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.73% at 3,042 yuan/ton during the day [1] - Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded slightly from their lows, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks has affected short-term market sentiment, and the medium-term cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil [2] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are currently limited. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread has dropped significantly from its high. With the release of the incremental supply in the Middle East, the crack spread of high-sulfur fuel oil needs incremental demand from the refinery end to support it after continuous adjustment [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance time of the Azul refinery, the shipping volume tracked in Kuwait since November is still zero, and there is still support for the short-term low-sulfur fuel oil market. Recently, the short-term trend of the high-low sulfur spread has been oscillating strongly, but the upside space is expected to be limited [2] Group 3: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]