Guoxin Securities·2025-12-05 03:11Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The banking industry's net interest margin (NIM) is expected to reach its bottom level around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating a potential end to the current downtrend in NIM [1][42]. - The report predicts a decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 10 basis points (bps) in 2026, which will likely lead to a year-on-year decrease in NIM of about 5 to 8 bps [2][3]. - The monetary policy for 2026 is characterized as "reasonable and ample" with a focus on precise adjustments, aiming to balance economic growth and financial stability [3][67]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality stocks that are expected to see an inflection point in NIM, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also considering stocks with attractive dividend yields like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][5]. NIM Analysis - The report estimates that the NIM for 2026 will narrow by approximately 2 to 5 bps, marking the likely end of the current downtrend cycle [66]. - The projected decline in loan rates is about 24 bps, which will negatively impact NIM by approximately 15 bps, while deposit rates are expected to decrease by 14 to 17 bps, providing a positive impact on NIM of about 10 to 13 bps [66][60]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy framework for 2026 emphasizes a balanced approach, with the LPR expected to decrease by 10 bps, contingent on economic conditions [3][68]. - The report highlights that maintaining stability in NIM and deposit rates will be a key objective for the People's Bank of China in 2026 [71][72].