铁矿石：需求加速回落，关注宏观驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term Fed rate - cut expectations have risen significantly. This week enters the macro window period, and it is expected that the weight of macro drivers will increase. The improvement of domestic finished product inventory structure, the relatively low decline rate of iron ore demand, and port spot trade restrictions jointly push up the spot price. The basis of the futures contract converges towards the spot price. Later, attention should be paid to the pressure on inventory depletion brought by the increase in rebar production. Iron water will show a downward trend both from the weak industrial reality and seasonal patterns this year. The inventory will tend to accumulate as a whole. The real - world drivers are weak, but the macro expectations are strong. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range. The price of the main iron ore futures contract will run in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - market (FE01) price of about 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign iron ore has increased month - on - month. Australia's shipment has slightly rebounded, and Brazil's shipment has rebounded significantly. From the seasonal pattern and the shipment targets of mainstream mines this year, the peak supply period of foreign ore may have passed, and the supply pressure may decline month - on - month in the later period [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is accelerating its decline. The main reasons are insufficient terminal demand, an increase in annual steel mill overhauls, seasonal decline in demand, and the blast furnace profitability rate being at a three - year low. The weak reality will limit the upside of prices. According to Mysteel research, 12 new blast furnaces are under overhaul and 6 are back in production this period. Blast furnace overhauls mainly occur in Xinjiang, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei and other regions due to downstream demand decline. The overhaul duration is mostly over 20 days, and some are over 100 days. Blast furnace restarts occur in Hebei and the Northeast regions, mainly after the end of overhauls and with acceptable downstream demand [4]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a relatively low level and has increased slightly this period. High prices have suppressed restocking demand. The inventory of steel mills mainly purchasing port spot has increased significantly. Later, attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating, mainly due to the continuous high arrival volume and the high - level decline in port clearance. It is expected that port inventory will still tend to accumulate in December [4]. Strategy - Interval operation and covered call options [5].