对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市，PTA：单边高位震荡市，MEG：价格创新低，趋势偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating market with cost support. The supply is likely to shrink, and it's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ positions, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Also, pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse spreads on the 01 contract. [2][8] - PTA will be in a unilateral high - level oscillating market, supported by PX at the cost end. It's advised to hold long PX and short PTA positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be cautious of the negative feedback in the industrial chain due to early terminal holidays from late December to early January. [2][8] - MEG shows a weak trend with prices hitting new lows. The willingness to hold positions is decreasing, and the upside space remains unopened. It's recommended to focus on monthly spread positive spreads and exit long MEG and short PTA positions. [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On December 4, 2025, PX price fell. A January Asian spot was traded at $844, and the valuation was $845 per ton, down $3 from December 3. The late - session naphtha price remained strong, with the January MOPJ currently estimated at $552 per ton CFR. [4] - PTA: This week, there were basically no changes in PTA devices in mainland China. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 73.7%, and the operating rate calculated by PTA device daily output/(domestic PTA capacity/365) was around 79.3%. [4] - MEG: A 1 million - ton/year MEG device in Jiangsu has been shut down recently, and the shutdown will last until the second quarter of 2026. A 1.1 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol device in the US reduced its load to around 70%, and a 360,000 - ton/year device is still under maintenance with no clear restart time. [4] Futures and Spot Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6906, 4724, 3826, 6268, and 452.6 respectively. The price changes were - 2, - 6, 4, - 16, and 4.5, with percentage changes of - 0.03%, - 0.13%, 0.10%, - 0.25%, and 1.00%. [3] - Spot: The previous day's prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $845.33 per ton, 4685 yuan per ton, 3813 yuan per ton, $559.75 per ton, and $64.36 per barrel respectively, showing price changes of - 3, - 20, - 16, - 2.25, and - 0.06. [3] - Spot Processing Fees: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 265.33, 159.83, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.23 respectively, with changes of 5, - 39.41, 9.65, 8.6, and 0.11. [3] Industry Load and Production and Sales - MEG: As of December 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.93% (down 0.2% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 72.58% (up 0.55% from the previous period). Since October 1, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 30.075 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - to - ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons. [6] - Polyester: A 200,000 - ton polyester device in Wujiang has been under maintenance since the beginning of this month, expected to last for one month. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 91.6%. On December 4, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average production - to - sales ratio of 30% - 40% by 3:45 pm. The production and sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were also weak, with an average production - to - sales ratio of 44% by 3:00 pm. [6][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 0, PTA is 0, and MEG is - 1, indicating a neutral trend for PX and PTA and a weak - downward trend for MEG. [7] Views and Suggestions - PX: Hold long PX and short BZ positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse spreads on the 01 contract. The domestic operating rate is maintained at 88.5% (- 1%), and the PX load is expected to decline due to planned maintenance of some devices. [8] - PTA: Hold long PX and short PTA positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. The PTA load is adjusted to 73.7%, and the polyester operating rate remains high at 91.6%. The price will be in a high - level oscillating market but beware of the negative feedback in the industrial chain. [8] - MEG: Focus on monthly spread positive spreads and exit long MEG and short PTA positions. The operating rate has dropped to 73%, but with new device commissions approaching, the willingness to hold positions has decreased, and the price has hit a new low. [8]