碳酸锂日评20251205：偏弱震荡-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of December 4, 2025, the spot main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume increasing by 20,135 to 663,458 lots and the open interest decreasing by 2,207 to 560,629 lots. The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - On the cost side, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite decreased. On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output from salt lakes decreasing and that from other raw materials increasing. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week. In December, the production and scheduled production of lithium carbonate decreased, while the output of power batteries rebounded last week. For terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipments weakened, and the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1]. - In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts increased by 770 to 10,422 tons, and the social inventory decreased, with smelters and others reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, and there are repeated reports of the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and downstream players still have a wait - and - see attitude. The spot market trading is sluggish, demand growth has stagnated, and the exchange has taken measures to cool down the market. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On December 4, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate were 90,680 yuan/ton, 92,260 yuan/ton, 92,480 yuan/ton, and 92,480 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 1,520 yuan/ton, + 200 yuan/ton, + 280 yuan/ton, and + 280 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) were 94,000 yuan/ton and 91,550 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,162 US dollars/ton, decreasing by 18 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of different grades of lepidolite decreased, for example, the average price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,590 yuan/ton, decreasing by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Downstream Product Prices - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 172,000 yuan/ton, increasing by 1,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials decreased slightly, for example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 104,950 yuan/ton, decreasing by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. New Energy Vehicle Sales Data - From January to October 2025, the global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million units, a year - on - year increase of 30%. In October, the global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 2.11 million units, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 32% [1]. - From January to October 2025, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.4 million units, with a growth rate of 10%. In October, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 93,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 51% [1]. Company News - Yihu Co., Ltd. is expected to exceed its annual lithium carbonate production plan of 300 tons [1]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated that its 40,000 - ton lithium extraction project is running smoothly, with a daily output of 60 - 70 tons, a purity of over 99.9%, and stable equipment operation [1].