国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Outlook: None - Neutral Outlook: PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, Paper Pulp, Urea, Benzene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Route) [2][5][13][17][20][27][38][51][54][88][91][95][71][73] - Negative Outlook: MEG, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, Methanol, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC [2][5][30][34][43][46][57][59][60][68] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market news, to assist investors in making decisions. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors. For example, some commodities are affected by raw material costs, while others are influenced by production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment [2][5][8][12] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by costs. The supply is expected to shrink, and the long - PX and short - BZ strategy can be continued, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - PTA: It shows a unilateral high - level oscillating market, supported by PX costs. The long - PX and short - PTA strategy can be held, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - MEG: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The willingness to hold positions decreases, and attention can be paid to the positive spread of the monthly difference [2][5][12] 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It oscillates. Overseas floodwaters recede, and production resumes, causing a decline in Thai raw materials. The domestic market is in the off - cutting season, and raw materials are firm [13][14][15] - Synthetic Rubber: It oscillates and declines. The supply of butadiene is slightly reduced, and the demand is stable. The synthetic rubber has fundamental pressure but is supported by valuation [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt - It is in a low - level oscillation, and factory inventories slightly increase. The weekly output decreases, factory inventories are flat, and social inventories decrease [20][26] 3.4 LLDPE - The basis declines, and the supply remains loose. The raw material price oscillates, the downstream demand is weak, and the mid - term supply - demand pressure exists [27][28] 3.5 PP - The mid - term trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand peak has passed, and although the short - term market is strong, the trend pressure is large [30][31] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The trend still faces pressure. The high - production, high - inventory pattern continues, the demand is weak, and the cost support is limited [34][35][36] 3.7 Paper Pulp - It oscillates. The price of imported pulp rises emotionally, but the demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [38][41][42] 3.8 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is weak [43][44] 3.9 Methanol - It operates under pressure. The port inventory decreases slightly, the short - term de - stocking slows down, and the mid - term supply pressure is high [46][49] 3.10 Urea - It gradually enters an oscillating pattern. The enterprise inventory decreases, the demand improves, and the price is supported, but the policy pressure may appear [51][52][53] 3.11 Benzene and Styrene - Benzene: It oscillates in the short term. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [54][55] - Styrene: It oscillates in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure is high, and the supply pressure is not large [54][55] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general [57] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - LPG: The trend is under pressure. The CP price changes, and there are many device maintenance plans [59][60][65] - Propylene: The pattern remains loose. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is under pressure [60] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates at a low level. The inventory increases, the short - term is not suitable for short - selling, and the supply may decrease in the future [68][69] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It rebounds slightly, possibly getting out of the weak state temporarily [71] - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session weakens, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [71] 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Route) - It oscillates strongly due to geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, but the high price may not be sustainable in the mid - term [73][85][86] 3.17 Short - fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The futures are weak, and the spot sales are sluggish [88] - Bottle Chip: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The upstream raw materials are weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light [88][89] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to take profits on long positions opportunely. The market price is stable, the demand is weak, and the cost increases [91][92][94] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates mainly in the short term. The inventory accumulates, and the short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [95][96]