合成橡胶期货日报-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed higher. However, due to the high - pressure background of the current supply environment and record - high inventory, it is still difficult for the synthetic rubber futures price to continue rising. Future market trends need to focus on factors such as new production capacity, domestic real estate and infrastructure policies, and crude oil price changes [2][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber 2601 (BR2601) opened at 10,690 yuan/ton, with a high of 10,755 yuan/ton, a low of 10,545 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 10,575 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 123,000 lots, a decrease of 48,600 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 39,000 lots, a decrease of 6,617 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Latest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Increase (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BR Rubber 2512 | 10,605 | 10,510 | - | 60 | 0.57 | 340 | 1,138 | | BR Rubber 2601 | 10,690 | 10,545 | 10,575 | 50 | 0.48 | 122,663 | 38,986 | | BR Rubber 2602 | 10,700 | 10,745 | - | - | - | - | - | [4] 3.2 Spot Movement - On December 3, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market were as follows: Yanshan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Yangzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Dushanzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Daqing Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The trading method was self - pick - up [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Recently, due to changes in the market environment, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, the available circulating supply has tightened, the cost support has gradually strengthened, and the synthetic rubber futures price has rebounded from a low level [5] 3.3.2 Policy and Market Dynamics - On December 3, data released by the Thai Rubber Administration showed that in Thailand's three major central rubber markets, Songkhla RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, Surat Thani RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, and Nakhon Si Thammarat RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - As of early December, the capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber reached a high of 76% for the year, and the capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber also increased to over 80%. The pressure on the butadiene supply side comes from both the abundant domestic production and the high level of imports [6]