尿素早评20251205：短期注意回调风险，仍以逢低做多为主-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of price correction, and the strategy should still focus on buying on dips. Urea's valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. The low price may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. The bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1688.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan (-0.24%) from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1745.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1763.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan (-0.28%) from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.79%) from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.95%) from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.18%) from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.17%) from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1740.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1700.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.19%) from December 3 [1] Basis and Spreads - Basis (Shandong Spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Costs - Henan Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 1030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3100.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan (1.31%) from December 3 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: On December 4, it was 2640.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (0.76%) from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5217.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1694 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume of 2601 was 209270 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1]