2025年第四季度：中国经济观察

Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding last year's growth by 0.4 percentage points, indicating good progress towards the annual target of around 5%[8] - In Q3, GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2, reflecting a historical low in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth[8] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a significant decline to -6.2%, down 8.3 percentage points from Q2[12] Investment and Consumption - Real estate investment plummeted from -12.1% in Q2 to -19.2% in Q3, significantly dragging down overall fixed asset investment[12] - Social retail sales grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a slowdown to 3.5%, a drop of 1.9 percentage points from Q2, primarily due to reduced consumer income growth and insufficient internal demand[11] - Manufacturing investment fell to -1.2% in Q3, marking the first quarterly negative growth since Q3 2020, influenced by external trade uncertainties and the "anti-involution" policy[12] Trade and External Factors - Exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth at 6.5%, supported by a 12.6% increase in exports to non-U.S. markets[13] - The average tariff imposed by the U.S. on China was reduced by 10% to 31%, positively impacting trade expectations for Q4[21] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The government has implemented 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt to support project construction and debt repayment[21] - Public fiscal revenue growth improved, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.5% in the first three quarters, while public expenditure growth slowed to 2.4%[15] - The People's Bank of China emphasized a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with a focus on structural tools to support key sectors such as technology and green development[16]