2026年投资展望系列之三：2026，2200+亿C-REITs怎么配？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the end of November 2025, China's infrastructure public REITs had issued 78 projects, with a total fund issuance of RMB 209.484 billion and a total market value of about RMB 222.3 billion, exceeding the RMB 220 billion mark. In 2026, the number of infrastructure REITs is expected to increase to 100, and new asset - type projects such as commercial real - estate REITs may be listed [1][13]. - In 2025, the primary market of C - REITs entered a new stage of regularized issuance, with new asset types gradually emerging. Although the number of issuances decreased compared to 2024, the primary market issuance was still popular, but there were signs of a slight cooling [2]. - The secondary market of C - REITs in 2025 showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The consumer and rental housing sectors led the gains, while the industrial park sector had the worst performance [3]. - In 2026, the unlocking of C - REITs projects may bring selling pressure, but the impact depends on market trends, the number of unlocked shares, and the floating profit level [4]. - In 2025, it is expected that 5 REITs projects will complete expansion and fundraising, raising about RMB 6.7 billion. Expansion can generally enhance the asset distribution rate, but the choice of issuance method will affect investors' decisions and cause secondary - market price fluctuations [6]. - In 2026, it is expected that about 20 new public REITs will be added. The demand side is still concentrated in securities firms' proprietary trading and insurance, and the introduction of incremental funds such as index - based investment tools and the inclusion of REITs in the "Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect" is expected to bring a wave of allocation opportunities [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market: Continued Regularized Issuance, New Asset Types to Gradually Launch - In 2025, C - REITs entered a new stage of regularized application and issuance. Relevant departments continued to promote market expansion, and new asset - type REITs such as commercial real - estate REITs are expected to be launched [2]. - From January to November 2025, 20 C - REITs were issued, with a scale of RMB 40.781 billion, a decline compared to 2024. The primary - market issuance was popular, but with the relaxation of the inquiry range, the first - day increase space of individual bonds became smaller, and there were signs of a slight cooling [2]. 3.2 Secondary Market: Rising First and Then Falling in 2025, Consumer/Protected Rental Housing Leading the Gains, Industrial Parks at the Bottom - In the first half of 2025, the C - REITs market continued the bull - market trend since the end of 2024, with the REITs total return index reaching a new high, an increase of 14.2%. The main driving factors were the low - interest - rate environment and the increase in institutional allocation demand [3]. - In the second half of 2025, the total return index declined for five consecutive months, with a retracement of 5.9% by the end of November. The main influencing factors were the strengthening of market risk appetite, the differentiation of the underlying asset fundamentals, and the unlocking of multiple projects [3]. - In 2025, the consumer and rental housing sectors had the highest increases, with increases of 22.3% and 13.0% respectively by the end of November. The industrial park sector was the only one with negative returns [31]. 3.3 Unlocking: Non - negligible Selling Pressure in 2026 - Most C - REITs projects face unlocking impacts at the 12th, 36th, and 60th months after listing, releasing a certain proportion of tradable shares. In the first half of 2026, 22 projects will be unlocked, and the pressure will ease in the second half [4]. - The impact of unlocking depends on market trends, the number of unlocked shares, and the floating profit level. Unlocking does not necessarily lead to a decline in individual bonds [4]. - The average daily turnover rate in the three stages before, during, and after the unlocking observation period generally showed a downward trend, indicating that the trading activity did not significantly increase with the increase in tradable shares [4]. 3.4 Expansion: An Important Means to Maintain Vitality - In 2025, it is expected that 5 REITs projects will complete expansion and fundraising, raising about RMB 6.7 billion, including 2 rental housing, 2 industrial park, and 1 energy project [6]. - Expansion is generally beneficial for enhancing the asset portfolio's yield and cash - flow source dispersion. However, the choice of issuance method may impact prices. The new assets of the 5 expansion projects in 2025 are expected to increase the project distribution rate by 20 - 40bp [6]. 3.5 2026: Opt for Prosperous Assets and Seize Opportunities from Oversold Individual Bonds 3.5.1 Supply Side: Approximately 20 New Additions Expected, Commercial Real - estate REITs Worth Anticipating - As of November 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission had recommended 105 REITs projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, 83 of which had been listed. There are 12 projects under exchange review, and it is expected that about 20 new public REITs will be added in 2026 [69][70][71]. - In November 2025, the CSRC solicited public opinions on launching commercial real - estate investment trust fund pilots, and commercial real - estate REITs may be launched in 2026 [71]. 3.5.2 Demand Side: Holdings Still Concentrated in Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading and Insurance, Looking Forward to Incremental Funds - The current investors in the REITs market mainly include industrial investors, securities firms, insurance companies, etc. Securities firms' proprietary trading has become the largest investor, followed by insurance [75]. - The introduction of index - based investment tools and the inclusion of REITs in the "Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect" in 2026 may bring incremental funds and a wave of allocation opportunities [79][82]. 3.5.3 Consumer Facilities: Overall Stable Operation, Room for Active Adjustment - As of the end of November 2025, 12 consumer REITs were listed. The third - quarter performance was stable, with the annualized distribution rate ranging from 3.62% to 5.59%. The fourth quarter is the peak season for consumer REITs [85]. - The shopping - mall industry is transforming from development - driven to operation - driven. Adjustment actions in shopping malls are important signals for observing revenue changes in consumer REITs [86]. 3.5.4 Rental Housing: Excellent Rental Performance, but Need to Watch Out for Competitor Pressure - As of the end of November 2025, 8 rental - housing REITs were listed. The rental - housing industry has seasonal fluctuations. The third - quarter performance was stable, with the annualized distribution rate ranging from 2.71% to 3.94% [90][91]. 3.5.5 Transportation Facilities: Pay Attention to the Diversion and Attraction Effects of Surrounding Road Network Reconstruction - As of the end of November 2025, 13 transportation - facility REITs were listed, all of which are expressways. The performance of individual projects varies, and the diversion and attraction effects of surrounding road networks are important factors for observing fundamentals [94]. 3.5.6 Data Centers: Single Tenant but Long - term Leases, Promising Performance in the Computing Power Boom - There are currently 2 data - center REITs in this sector, both listed on August 8, 2025. The projects have single or few reliable tenants, long leases, and high cash - flow dependence on tenants [98]. 3.5.7 Municipal Environmental Protection: Strong Public - Utility Attributes, Stable or Rising Treatment Volume or Unit Price - As of the end of November 2025, 4 municipal environmental - protection REITs were listed, including ecological - environment protection, water supply, and heating. The prices are affected by government regulation, and the third - quarter performance of each project had its own characteristics [103]. 3.5.8 Warehousing and Logistics: Impact of New Supply Still Exists, Overseas Tenants Adjusted after the Trade War - As of the end of November 2025, 11 warehousing - and - logistics REITs were issued. The new supply has an impact on the market, and the rent of some warehouse types is under pressure. Projects with a high proportion of related - party leases are more resistant to competition [106][109]. 3.5.9 Energy Facilities: Multiple Factors Affect Power Generation and Grid - connected Electricity, National Subsidies Remain a Guarantee - As of the end of November 2025, 8 energy - facility REITs were listed. The power generation and grid - connected electricity of some projects were affected by factors such as wind resources and line outages, but national subsidies can improve the distribution rate [111]. 3.5.10 Industrial Parks: Many Projects with Occupancy Rates in the 60s, Incubators Generally with Poor Performance - As of the end of November 2025, 20 industrial - park REITs were listed. The third - quarter performance of the industrial - park sector continued to be under pressure, with significant project differentiation. Projects with occupancy rates in the 80s - 90s are worthy of attention [114][115].