中辉有色观点-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound in the short - term, bearish on rebounds in the medium - and long - term [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Short on rallies [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: U.S. data is mixed, gold prices fluctuate at high levels, and long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. Silver has long - term positive factors, but short - term chasing is not recommended [1][2][3] - Copper: The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas short squeezes. After reaching historical highs, long positions should take profits, and copper is still bullish in the medium - and long - term [1][5][6] - Zinc: The overall supply and demand are weak, with inventory reduction in the off - season. It may face pressure again after reaching the 23,000 mark, and a bearish view on rebounds is maintained in the medium - and long - term [1][7][9] - Aluminum: The downstream start - up is okay, and the aluminum price continues to rebound. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [1][10][12] - Nickel: The inventory remains at a high level, and the nickel price rebounds under pressure. The stainless - steel market has entered the off - season [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate: The total inventory has been declining for 16 weeks, and a long position can be taken after a sufficient correction [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, and the Russia - Ukraine peace process has new developments. Gold fluctuates at high levels and awaits the next Fed meeting [2] - Basic Logic: U.S. employment is in a "no - firing, no - hiring" mode, the probability of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike increases, and the Russia - Ukraine war mediation has advanced [2] - Trading Logic: Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. For silver, the short - term sentiment may decline after the delivery squeeze eases [3] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935 and silver at 12,600. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held, but short - term operations should be cautious [3] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper fluctuates at high levels and tests the support at the 90,000 mark [5] - Industrial Logic: The global copper concentrate supply is tight, the CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing production capacity, and the LME copper cancelled warrants have increased sharply. The non - U.S. copper inventory is gradually running out [5] - Strategy Recommendation: After reaching historical highs, long positions should take profits and wait for a correction to enter the market. In the medium - and long - term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper at [89,000, 92,000] yuan/ton and LME copper at [11,000, 12,000] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc continues to rebound [7] - Industrial Logic: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee continues to decline, the consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is reduced in the off - season [7][8] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, long positions should gradually take profits. In the medium - and long - term, a bearish view on rebounds is maintained. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc at [22,800, 23,200] yuan/ton and LME zinc at [3,000, 3,100] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - Market Review: The aluminum price continues to rebound, and alumina continues its weak trend [10][11] - Industrial Logic: The expectation of the Fed's year - end rate cut is strengthened. The cost of aluminum enterprises in southwestern China may increase, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is reduced. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [10][12] - Strategy Recommendation: After taking short - term profits, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operating range is [21,500 - 22,500] [13] Nickel - Market Review: The nickel price rebounds under pressure, and the stainless - steel price is under pressure [14][15] - Industrial Logic: The expectation of the Fed's year - end rate cut is strengthened. Some Indonesian smelters plan to cut production, but the inventory remains at a high level. The stainless - steel market has entered the off - season [14][16] - Strategy Recommendation: After taking profits at low prices, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the change in the stainless - steel inventory, and the main operating range of nickel is [116,000 - 119,000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2605 opens low and moves low, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [18][19] - Industrial Logic: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong. There is no room for a sharp decline in prices, and a long position can be taken after a sufficient correction [18][20] - Strategy Recommendation: Take a long position at low prices in the range of [93,000 - 96,000] [21]