原油：美国产量何时见顶

Group 1: Report Core View - Since the fourth quarter, crude oil has entered a weak and volatile bottoming stage. With the increase in refinery operations, the inventory in the Cushing pricing area remains healthy. However, due to off - balance - sheet inventory not entering the pricing area on a large scale, there is no optimistic expectation for a significant short - term increase in oil prices. Oil prices are at an important turning point from pessimism to optimism in the medium - to - long - term cycle, mainly because the negative impact of the OPEC group will be gradually realized next year, and the peak of US production is emerging. The judgment of the peak of US production will determine the overall expectation change of oil prices. In 2026, there is no possibility of a significant increase in US production, and in the longer term, the decline of US production is almost a foregone conclusion [2] Group 2: Reasons for the Emerging Peak of US Production - From the perspective of US shale oil enterprise investment, it is impossible for the US to significantly increase production. The current CAPEX/D&A ratio is close to 1%, indicating that enterprises focus more on maintaining or optimizing asset efficiency rather than exploration and expansion [4] - High - frequency indicators, such as the number of active fracturing fleets, also show consistent results [7] Group 3: Prediction of US Production Decline - According to the prediction of the traditional energy production Hubbert model, if drilling activities remain sluggish or there is no leap - forward improvement in oil extraction technology (i.e., no qualitative change in extraction efficiency), US crude oil production will peak or slightly decline in 2026 and experience large - scale decline in 2027. This model is slightly more accurate in quantifying natural gas than crude oil [9] - The Hubbert model has accurately predicted the decline process of natural gas production in the Barnett and Fayetteville regions [12]