宝城期货甲醇早报：品种晨会纪要-20251205

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future, with short - term long - short divergence and a multi - factor influence on the market [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. Core Logic - After a previous round of stable rebound, the bullish factors in the methanol futures market have been gradually digested, and the market has entered a stage of long - short divergence [5]. - In the future, more methanol plants in Iran will reduce production due to gas restrictions, leading to a decrease in supply expectations, a reduction in China's import pressure, and a possible de - stocking cycle for port inventories [5]. - However, the current domestic methanol supply pressure still exists, which may weaken the decline in supply [5]. - There is a release of rigid demand during the heating season in northern China, and there are future demand expectations [5].