集运日报：或对2月运价存在乐观情绪，盘面震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has optimistic sentiment towards February freight rates, and the market is oscillating upward. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Indexes - On November 28th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, comprehensive index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1483.65 points, down 9.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 948.77 points, down 14.4%; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% [2] - On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFl) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, comprehensive index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1%; the SCFl European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71%; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1%; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79%; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% [2] Economic Data of Different Regions - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value - 8.5 [2] - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3] - In October in the US, the S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3] Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 4th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1585.0, with a gain of 3.32%, a trading volume of 27,300 lots, and an open interest of 34,200 lots, a decrease of 786 lots from the previous day [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try long positions with a light position in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add positions, not to hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage Strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high point, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Contract Rules Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Events - On December 3rd local time, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that Hamas violated the cease - fire agreement, attacked Israeli troops in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip, and injured 5 soldiers. In response, the Israeli military carried out an air strike on a Hamas member in southern Gaza [5]