Dongguan Securities·2025-12-05 06:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][43]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is projected to approach $975 billion by 2026, achieving a year-on-year growth of over 25%. This growth is primarily driven by demand from AI and data centers, which are boosting the logic chip and memory markets [12][35]. - The report emphasizes that artificial intelligence remains the main innovation driver in the technology sector, with various segments such as computing power, storage, equipment, and advanced packaging expected to benefit [35]. - Domestic AI chip companies are rapidly developing and achieving milestones in domestic substitution, with firms like Moer and Muxi accelerating their capital market strategies. Additionally, major internet companies like Tencent are actively adapting to domestic computing power chips, which is expected to accelerate the formation of a domestic computing power ecosystem [35]. Industry Overview Market Performance - As of December 4, 2025, the semiconductor industry index has increased by 1.82% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.22 percentage points. Year-to-date, the semiconductor index has risen by 41.03%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 25.48 percentage points [4][11]. Industry News and Developments 1. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has raised its estimate for the 2025 global semiconductor market size to $772 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22% [12]. 2. Alibaba's CEO indicated that the company is experiencing significant demand for AI servers, with the current supply not keeping pace with orders [15][16]. 3. TSMC is expected to accelerate its global expansion, with capital expenditures projected to reach $50 billion next year [20]. 4. The NAND Flash wafer supply is tightening, leading to contract price increases of over 60% for some products in November [24]. Company Announcements - De Ming Li plans to raise up to 3.2 billion yuan for SSD and memory product expansion projects [25]. - Longxin Storage has launched new DDR5 memory products with speeds up to 8000 Mbps, showcasing competitive technology [13]. - East Core has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a leading domestic cloud service provider [26]. Data Updates Smartphone Shipment Data - Global smartphone shipments reached 323 million units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [30]. - Domestic smartphone shipments in September 2025 were 25.617 million units, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [30]. New Energy Vehicle Sales Data - In October 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales totaled 1.715 million units, marking a 20% year-on-year increase [32]. Semiconductor Sales Data - Global semiconductor sales in September 2025 amounted to $69.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [35].