Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Oscillation and bottom - building [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [7][8] - Offset paper: Oscillation [8] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [8] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8][9] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - No. 2 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - No. 1 soybeans: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - Live pigs: Strong - biased oscillation [9] - Rubber: Oscillation [10][11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillation [11] - MEG: Weak oscillation [11] - PR: Wait - and - see [11] - PF: Wait - and - see [11] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, with limited upward momentum for prices in the high - level range. The coal - coke market has a weak demand but short - term support at low levels. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the glass market's future depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors. In the financial market, the short - term adjustment is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic. The precious metals market is supported by long - term factors, with short - term disturbances from interest rate policies and risk - aversion sentiment. The light industry products like logs and pulp have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. The oilseeds and oils market is expected to continue range - bound operation, and the agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has specific supply - demand and price trends. The soft commodities and polyester products also have their own price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors [2][3][4][7][8][9][10][11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 3.3232 billion tons, while the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 155.5 million tons to 2.784 billion tons. Daily hot - metal production dropped by 23,800 tons to 2.323 million tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Port iron ore inventory slightly increased to an 8 - month high. The oversupply pattern is hard to reverse, and although the probability of short - term negative feedback is low, the price oscillates in the high - level range with limited upward momentum [2] - Coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. After continuous declines, the valuation of coking coal and coke has become reasonable and stopped falling this week. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced the expectation of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Some domestic coal mines are affected by safety inspections, with a slight decline in the weekly operating rate. The profit of some coking enterprises has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises has intensified. There is still a need for inventory replenishment in the short term, providing support at low levels [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and winter - storage replenishment has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level and weak domestic demand. Steel prices may stop falling if the output is reduced by more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and anti - involution policies are effectively implemented. Currently, the price is expected to remain at the bottom, with no significant change in supply and demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policy expectations on winter storage [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances. It is expected that three production lines in Hubei will undergo cold - repair in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and the futures price is running weakly. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises has decreased, reaching the lowest level since October. The real - estate completion decline has dragged down demand, and whether the price can stop falling depends on the cold - repair progress and macro factors [2][3] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw the CSI 300 Index up 0.34%, the SSE 50 Index up 0.38%, the CSI 500 Index up 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index up 0.01%. There was capital inflow in the engineering machinery and semiconductor sectors and capital outflow in the catering, tourism, and retail sectors. There are various exchanges and communications between Chinese and American enterprises and organizations, and relevant policies and statements are also involved. The market is in short - term adjustment, but the medium - term trend is optimistic, with the high - tech industry continuing to grow [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 2bps, FR007 rose by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on December 4th, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. The spot - bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - Gold: In the context of high interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the dollar's credit, highlighting gold's de - fiat - currency attribute. In a high - interest - rate environment, gold's substitution effect for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to US Treasury real interest rates has decreased. Geopolitical risks and China's physical - gold demand support the price. The logic behind the current gold - price increase remains unchanged, with short - term disturbances from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, and factors such as non - farm data and inflation data also affect the market [4] - Silver: Similar to gold, it shows a strong - biased oscillation trend, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, risk - aversion sentiment, and economic data [4] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume at ports last week was 613,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume was stable above 600,000 cubic meters but decreased last week. The volume of New Zealand's logs shipped to China in October increased by 2% compared to the previous month, while China's coniferous - log imports decreased by 4.67% from the previous month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. The port inventory decreased by 600,000 cubic meters. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price of 4/6 - meter medium - grade A logs has decreased. The supply pressure has improved, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs and weak cost support. The price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [4][7][8] - Pulp: The spot - market price continued to show a strong trend in the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood - pulp spot markets rising by 20 - 150 yuan/ton and that of hardwood - pulp by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp remained at $680/ton, and that of hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure, with low acceptance of high - priced pulp. The demand is weak, and although traders have raised their quotes, downstream procurement is rational. The price is expected to return to oscillation [7][8] - Double - offset paper: The spot - market price stabilized in the previous trading day. The production of double - offset paper is expected to be stable, with little change in the supply side. The publication tenders are basically over, and orders are expected to increase, which is beneficial for paper - enterprise sales. Large - scale paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price may be raised at the beginning of the month. The price is expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [8] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by the expected production reduction due to floods in Southeast Asia and the postponement of EU policies. A large amount of soybeans are arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and although the oil inventory has decreased, the supply is abundant. The demand may gradually pick up, and with cost support, the oil market is expected to continue range - bound operation, with attention paid to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production - sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [8] - Meals: The US soybean production, exports, and ending inventory have all been adjusted downward, with a structurally tight supply, but the global soybean supply is still relatively abundant. The Sino - US trade agreement may promote US soybean exports to China, but US soybeans are more expensive than Brazilian ones, and the US biodiesel policy is uncertain, resulting in uncertain demand prospects. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is generally favorable, while that in the Argentinean area is uneven. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is high, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and although the demand from the breeding industry supports feed consumption, the breeding efficiency is poor, and feed enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the progress of Sino - US trade [8][9] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs nationwide is 124.62 kg, and it is showing a downward trend in most provinces this week. Due to the lag in the monthly slaughter progress, breeding enterprises are accelerating sales, increasing the supply of live pigs. Retail farmers are mainly slaughtering large - weight pigs, which do not fully match market demand. Slaughtering enterprises are more inclined to purchase from large - scale farms, leading to a slight decrease in the trading weight, which may continue to decline slightly in the next week. The average settlement price of live pigs at key slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 12.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.84% from the previous period. The settlement price is continuously falling. The average operating rate of slaughtering enterprises nationwide is 38.92%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from last week. The supply of live pigs is generally abundant, and with the temperature drop, the terminal consumption has slightly recovered, increasing the orders of slaughtering enterprises and supporting the slight increase in the operating rate. However, the operating rate is expected to weaken next week. The profitability of self - breeding and piglet - fattening has decreased, and the decline in breeding costs is less than that in sales revenue. The average weekly price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: In the Yunnan rubber - producing area, the weather is average, and the raw - material price is stable, with the factory price increase driving up the raw - material price. In Hainan, the weather is good this week, but the output has decreased due to temperature. Affected by continuous rain and typhoon weather, the overall glue output is lower than the same period in previous years. The production and purchase costs of local processing plants have slightly increased, providing support for the price. In Thailand, there is a lot of rain, and the average weekly price has reached 57 Thai baht/kg, with both the glue and cup - lump prices rising. In Vietnam, the raw - material supply in the southern area is gradually recovering, while other areas are still affected by rainfall. The total inventory is at a low level. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62%. The capacity utilization rate decreased this week due to short - term maintenance plans in some enterprises, but it will gradually recover. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.35 million and 3.32 million vehicles respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase and a record - high year - on - year increase. The natural - rubber inventory is increasing significantly, with the total social inventory reaching 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous period. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are accumulating inventory, and it is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The weakening of raw - material procurement prices and the inventory - accumulation trend suppress price increases, and with weak demand - side support, the natural - rubber price is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [10][11] Polyester - PX: Geopolitical instability has led to supply risks, and with the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December, oil prices have rebounded. The current PX supply is high, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, which is beneficial for PX demand. The PXN price difference is temporarily stable, and the PX price is oscillating widely [11] - PTA: The wide - range oscillation of oil prices has affected the PX end, causing the cost of PTA to loosen. Although the short - term supply - demand situation of PTA has improved, the industry's seasonal weakness is inevitable, and the supply - demand situation will deteriorate in the future. The processing margin is still low, and the spot price is expected to mainly follow the cost - side fluctuations in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [11] - MEG: In the long - term, the inventory - accumulation pressure of MEG still exists, but the situation has improved in the near - term due to a reduction in some supplies. Attention should be paid to the continuous changes in the supply side. As the port inventory increases, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the MEG spot basis has weakened. In the short term, the MEG price is expected to oscillate weakly, with continuous upward pressure [11] - PR: The terminal performance remains weak, and the order - taking pressure of factories and traders has increased. With weak raw - material support, the polyester - bottle - chip market may oscillate weakly [11] - PF: The upward trend of oil prices continues, and the current supply - demand structure of polyester staple fiber is acceptable. However, the market is in a wait - and - see state [11]
新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-5）-20251205
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-12-05 06:55