中辉能化观点-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, asphalt [2][4][7] - Cautiously Bullish: PX/PTA, urea, natural gas [4][7] - Buy on Dips after Correction: Methanol [4] - Bearish Continued: L, PP, glass, soda ash [2][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil and Gas Products: The market is mainly affected by supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical factors, and cost changes. For example, crude oil is pressured by oversupply in the off - season, while natural gas is supported by increased demand in the consumption season [2][4][7] - Chemical Products: Supply and demand, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors. For instance, PTA has improved fundamentals due to reduced supply and good demand, while PVC is limited by high inventory and weak fundamentals but supported by low valuations [4][23][31] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously bearish, with oversupply in the off - season pressuring oil prices [2] - Logic: Geopolitical events in Ukraine and South America provide short - term support, but OPEC+ maintains production, and global and US inventories are rising [12][13] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 445 - 455 yuan/barrel for SC [14] LPG - Core View: Cautiously bearish, following the downward trend of the cost - end oil price [2] - Logic: The cost is affected by oil prices, downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing [18] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton for PG [19] L - Core View: Bearish continued, with weakening cost support [2] - Logic: Cost support is insufficient, supply is abundant, and demand is weak after the peak season [23] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton [23] PP - Core View: Bearish continued, with attention to the sustainability of parking [2] - Logic: Supply pressure is relieved by increased parking, but demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall [27] - Strategy: Short - term strength, but wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Consider going long on PP processing fees 01. Focus on the range of 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton for PP and 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton for propylene [27] PVC - Core View: Bearish with short - term rebound, supported by low valuations [2] - Logic: High inventory limits the upside, but low valuations limit the downside. Pay attention to inventory changes and capital movements [31] - Strategy: Try to go long on dips based on capital dynamics in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the long term. Focus on the range of 4500 - 4700 yuan/ton [31] PTA - Core View: Cautiously bullish, with improved supply - demand and low valuations [4] - Logic: Supply pressure is relieved by large - scale device maintenance, demand is relatively good, and the short - term supply - demand is tight [33] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips. Focus on the range of 4680 - 4735 yuan/ton [34] Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Cautiously bearish, with expected improvement in supply but inventory accumulation [4] - Logic: Domestic coal - based device start - up increases, but later integrated device maintenance will relieve supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [36] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of 3760 - 3830 yuan/ton [37] Methanol - Core View: Buy on dips after correction, with attention to the 05 contract [4] - Logic: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure still exists. Demand is improving, and coal costs provide support at the end of the year [40] - Strategy: The rebound of the 01 contract may be limited. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the range of 2085 - 2121 yuan/ton [43] Urea - Core View: Cautiously bullish, with expected improvement in supply - demand [4] - Logic: Supply pressure will be relieved in mid - December, demand is mixed with strong exports, and inventory is still at a high level [45] - Strategy: Try to go long on dips with a light position. Focus on the range of 1675 - 1705 yuan/ton [46] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously bullish, with rising prices in the consumption season [7] - Logic: The EU increases LNG purchases from the US, and demand increases in the consumption season [50] - Strategy: Gas prices are likely to rise. Focus on the range of 4.980 - 5.185 dollars/million British thermal units [51] Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously bearish, with a downward trend in the off - season [7] - Logic: It is affected by oil prices, with sufficient supply and weak demand in the off - season [55] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton [56] Glass - Core View: Bearish continued, with the spot price falling and the market returning to a bearish trend [7] - Logic: Daily melting volume is decreasing, demand is weak due to the real - estate situation [60] - Strategy: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of 1020 - 1070 yuan/ton [60] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish continued, with increasing warehouse receipts [7] - Logic: Warehouse receipts are increasing, supply is abundant, and demand is weak due to glass cold - repair [64] - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of 1150 - 1200 yuan/ton [64]