玻璃月报：供需弱平衡格局，价格缺乏上行支撑-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the float glass futures showed a trend of "bottoming out and then rebounding oscillating". The market in December will continue the pattern of supply - demand game. The supply - side cold - repair capacity may accelerate, and the demand side will enter the seasonal off - season. The futures price is likely to oscillate in the range of 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy and focus on the cold - repair implementation rhythm and inventory reduction situation [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Trend - In November, the main contract of float glass futures (FG2601) showed an oscillating repair trend of "bottoming out in the early stage and rebounding at the end of the month". The closing price on November 28 was 1053 yuan/ton, up 4.9% from the end of October. The whole - month low was 1002 yuan/ton, and the maximum rebound amplitude was 5.1%. The monthly trend can be divided into three stages: continuous bottom - seeking from November 1 - 18, stop - falling and stabilization from November 19 - 24, and oscillating rebound from November 25 - 28 [5]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Structure - In November, the linkage between the float glass futures and spot markets increased significantly. The spot price oscillated and rebounded synchronously with the futures. By November 28, the national average spot price was 1090 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the end of October. The basis of the FG2601 contract changed from +45 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 37 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Regionally, there were obvious differences. Overseas, the import and export volumes decreased, and the overseas market had limited support for domestic prices [6]. 2. Float Glass Supply - Demand Fundamentals 2.1 Supply Side - In November, the supply side of float glass showed the characteristics of "local contraction, overall looseness". The average monthly start - up rate was 74.51%, down 2.3 percentage points from October. The weekly output decreased from 111.02 tons to 110.39 tons. Due to profit differentiation, the industry was difficult to form a concentrated production cut. The inventory first increased and then decreased, and was still at the second - highest level in the same period of history [16][17]. 2.2 Demand Side - In November, the demand side of float glass showed the differentiated characteristics of "marginal improvement in completion, weak terminal procurement". The real - estate completion area increased, driving a slight rebound in architectural glass demand, but the new - start area decreased significantly, and the medium - and long - term demand growth was insufficient. The downstream deep - processing link was dull, and the demand in other downstream fields was mixed [23]. 2.3 Cost Side - In November, the cost of float glass showed a downward trend, and the cost support for price weakened. The average production cost was 1085 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from October. Cost differentiation further intensified the structural differences on the supply side [37]. 3. Market Outlook for December 2025 3.1 Supply - Demand Pattern - The supply - side contraction is expected to accelerate in December. The demand side will enter the seasonal off - season, and the total demand is expected to decline by 5% - 7% month - on - month. The inventory is expected to continue the slow de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [45]. 3.2 Cost Side - In December, the cost of float glass is expected to remain stable, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced. The average production cost may rise to 1090 - 1100 yuan/ton, forming a bottom support for the futures price [46]. 3.3 Technical Aspect - Technically, the FG2601 contract is in the middle of the 1020 - 1070 yuan/ton range. The short - term bullish momentum is still there, but the rebound momentum has weakened. The upper pressure level is 1065 yuan/ton, and the lower support levels are 1030 yuan/ton and 1020 yuan/ton [46]. 4. Operation Strategy Suggestions for December 4.1 Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton range. - Medium - term strategy: Pay attention to long opportunities brought by unexpected supply contraction. - Hedging strategy: Producers can sell - hedge above 1060 yuan/ton, and deep - processing enterprises can buy - hedge below 1030 yuan/ton [47].